Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 21 June 2024 Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 21 June 2024 Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 21 June 2024

Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 21 June 2024

Macro 3 minutes to read
Saxo Strategy Team

Key points:

  • Equities: Flat equity futures after mixed US economic data. Today’s focus is PMI figures.
  • Currencies: USDJPY back at 159 as Japan added to US monitoring list for currency manipulation
  • Commodities: Precious metals, crude and gasoline tops the table this week while wheat tumbles
  • Fixed Income: US 10-year yields near three-month low on soft US data
  • Economic data: EU, UK and US PMIs

The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.

In the news: Bank of England keeps rates at 5.25% in ‘finely balanced’ decision; traders lift bets for August cut (CNBC), US Adds Japan to Currency Watchlist as Trade Partners Struggle With Stronger Dollar (Bloomberg), Accenture says strong AI demand to power 2024 revenue growth (Yahoo), A marathon, not a sprint: Apple’s AI push faces big challenges in China (CNBC), Oil companies flare more natural gas, defying effort to eliminate practice (Reuters), Guzman Y Gomez surges 37% in hottest Australian IPO in three years (Reuters)

Equities: Hong Kong equities are down 1.3% erasing the gains from Wednesday underscoring the lack of sentiment and momentum in China as PBOC boosts Yuan fixing at the strongest levels since April. Futures are pointing to a flat open in Europe and the US. Yesterday’s US economic data was on balance to the weaker side than expected, but high-frequency indicators are still suggesting robust growth for now. Today’s key events are preliminary June PMI figures for the Eurozone, UK, and US.

Macro: US jobless claims came in at 238k for the latest week, slightly lower from the previous 243k (revised higher) a sign the job market is loosening momentum but not at a rapid pace. Philly Fed also disappointed with headline falling to 1.3 from 4.5, its lowest reading since January, while the inflationary gauge of prices paid and prices received, rose to 22.5 (prev. 18.7) and 13.7 (prev. 7.7), respectively. Higher-for-longer interest rates continues to sap the US housing industry’s momentum from earlier this year after housing starts decreased 5.5% to a 1.28 million annualized rate last month while Building permits, which point to future construction, fell 3.8% to a 1.39 million annual rate, both the weakest since June 2020. The declines in starts and permits were broad across multifamily and single-family units.  Fed’s Kashkari said that it will probably take a year or two to get inflation back to 2%, noting wage growth might still be a bit too high to get back to 2% right now. The Swiss National Bank delivered a second consecutive, and surprise, rate cut – taking its policy rate to 1.25%. Concerns over the strength of the Swiss franc likely underpinned, and the SNB policy rate is now very close to neutral. The Bank of England held its benchmark rate at 5.25% with a 7-2 vote split again. However, there was no sense of concern from the persistently high services inflation, and it was stated that the MPC’s decision to hold rates was finely balanced, hinting at readiness for future cuts. The market has priced in 62% odds of an August rate cut. Japan’s inflation for May picked up but remained below expectations. Headline CPI was out at 2.8% YoY from 2.5% previously while core inflation nudged higher to 2.5% from 2.2%. While the report is a mixed bag, it does not rule out the case for policy normalization from the Bank of Japan at the July meeting especially with yen under further downward pressure and intervention flexibility being evaded by the US putting Japan on the “monitoring list” for currency manipulation.

Macro events (times in GMT):  UK May Retail Sales (0600), Euro-area PMI’s (June) exp. 52.5 vs 52.2 prior (0800), UK PMI’s (June) exp 53 vs 53 prior (0830), US PMI (June) exp. 53.5 vs 54.5 prior (1345), Leading Index (May) exp –0.3% vs –0.6% prior (1400), US Existing Home Sales (May) exp 4.1m vs 4.14m prior (1400), EIA Natural Gas Storage Change, exp. 74 bcf vs 70 bcf prior (1430)

Earnings events: Both FactSet and CarMax report earnings before the US market opens. Analysts expect a troubled quarterly result from CarMax with revenue down 6% YoY and EPS down 33% YoY.

  • Today: FactSet, CarMax

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar

Fixed income: The yield on the US 10-year Treasury notes trades close to flat on the week but still near a three-month low after settling into a relatively tight range between 4.2% and 4.3%, and despites Thursday’s broad US data softness. Overall, the short-term interest rates market remains reluctant to price in much more than the one cut being signalled by the FOMC, despite data such as weak housing starts and completions suggesting that the current high level of US interest rates is starting to take its toll on consumers.

Commodities: The sector is heading for a second weekly gain with all sectors except grains rising led by recovering metals, both precious and industrials, and continued strength across the energy sector. A technical rebound in copper following its recent and relatively deep correction and fresh demand for gold amid US economic data weakness both supported silver’s jump back above USD 30 to record a 4% gain on the week. Crude oil reached a seven-week high after a US report showed declines in crude and fuel stocks, as the expected summer deficits amid strong demand is starting to show. US implied demand for gasoline reached last year’s level while jetfuel demand has reached a five-year high. Chicago wheat trades down 6% on the week amid beneficial rain in the US and especially Russia, leading to an upward revision to this year's crop estimate.

FX: The Bloomberg Dollar Index trades close to flat on the week following four weeks of gains with gains in AUD, MXN and CAD being offset by weakness in JPY, CNH and GBP. The greenback strengthened a bit on Thursday, supported by higher Treasury yields, in contrast to the dovish outcomes from the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England meetings. The Swiss franc (CHF) underperformed as the SNB unexpectedly cut rates. The CHF also saw significant declines against the Norwegian krone (NOK) due to the Norges Bank's hawkish stance. Sterling faced downside pressure, slipping towards one-month lows against the US dollar, and next up will be GBPUSD testing the 100-day moving average at 1.2640. The Japanese yen also weakened to its lowest levels since the intervention in early May, with USDJPY at the 159-level, as the US Treasury added Japan to its monitoring list for currency manipulators, indicating limited potential for intervention.

Volatility: The VIX ended Thursday at $13.28 (+0.80 | +6.41%). Short-term volatility indicators also surged, with the VIX1D at $12.25 (+2.74 | +28.81%) and the VIX9D at $12.36 (+1.24 | +11.15%). The SKEW index, which measures the perceived risk of outlier moves in the S&P 500, rose to 148.60 (+5.70 | +3.99%). Today's economic focus, which will influence market volatility, includes the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, S&P Global Services PMI, Existing Home Sales, and the Fed Monetary Policy Report. Additionally, there might be extra volatility due to the quarterly expirations, as today is the quarterly expiration Friday. VIX futures are currently at $14.800 (+0.030 | +0.22%). S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures are showing slightly positive movements after a quiet nightly session: S&P 500 futures are at 5549.00 (+4.50 | +0.08%) and Nasdaq 100 futures are at 20073.00 (+41.50 | +0.21%). Thursday's top 10 most traded stock options were Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices, Apple, Tesla, Amazon, GameStop, Palantir Technologies, Dell Technologies, Super Micro Computer, and Micron Technology.

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 07

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • The rise of populism: Far-right parties will influence the future

    The disheartening cycle of unresolved geopolitical conflicts, the rise of polarizing political parties, and the stagnation of productivity.

    Read article
  • Investing in China: Navigating Q1 amid economic challenges

    Understand China's political landscape in Q4 2023 and the impact on counter-cyclical initiatives, with a focus on the pivotal Q1 2024.

    Read article

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
- Full disclaimer (

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo or its affiliates.

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited
19th Floor
Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower
12 Queen’s Road Central
Hong Kong

Contact Saxo

Select region

Hong Kong S.A.R
Hong Kong S.A.R

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited (“Saxo”) is a company authorised and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Saxo holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Securities); Type 2 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Futures Contract); Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading); Type 4 Regulated Activity (Advising on Securities) and Type 9 Regulated Activity (Asset Management) licenses (CE No. AVD061). Registered address: 19th Floor, Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower, 12 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. Please click here to view the relevant risk disclosure statements.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

The information or the products and services referred to on this site may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and services offered on this website are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity residing in the United States and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.