Head of Macro Analysis
Summary: Our Macro Chartmania series collects Macrobond data and focuses on a single chart chosen for its relevance. This week, we look at maritime data and especially Hong Kong's international cargo vessels traffic.
Click here to download this week's full edition of Macro Chartmania.
The current congestion situation in international ports, especially in South East Asia, resulting in cargos staying anchor and waiting for their turn to enter is likely to remain in place into 2022. Located at the doorstep of the Pearl River Delta, Hong Kong is one of the busiest container ports in China and in the world, along with Ningbo, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. There were only 1358 international arrivals of cargo vessels in last September – the last month for which data are available. This is one of the lowest figures on record. Before the outbreak, the number of arrivals was almost twice as high. In tonnage terms, the figure is striking too. In September, the tonnage was about 17.8 millions tons – a low point since 2000. In the below chart, we see the data expressed as a 12 month rolling sum. Congestion and bottlenecks in moving container traffic partially explain the bad numbers. The bottlenecks reflect distressed supply on the production side and the impact of the zero Covid policy in China. The policy will prevail at least until the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing. We estimate the shutdown of strategic ports during one month causes bottlenecks that take about 6 to 8 weeks to be absorbed. This was the case when the Chinese authorities closed the port of Yantian last June due to Covid cases. Natural disasters can make the situation worse too. In mid-October, the typhoon Kompasu scattered ships out of Hong Kong for a few days, for instance. Expect port congestion to weigh on the economic recovery into 2022 and contribute to overall inflationary pressures. Our baseline is that global central banks will need to hike interest rates much faster than anticipated next year to fight persistent inflationary pressures. The U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are in the frontline.
A new fragmented world order can render some of today's infrastructure obselete, but it also calls for massive new investments across the globe, which requires a new set of strategic and tactical investment strategies.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
As globalisation turns to fragmentation, China seems set on playing a role in the global economy, while simultaneously working towards proofing its own economic situation from external shocks and crises.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The recent bank runs and ensuing challenges are reminicent of something we've seen before. Will it end like the S&L crises of 1986 and 1995?
Chris Dembik,
Head of Macroeconomic Research
Equity markets need to recalibrate to another - fragmented - global world. What's your view on equities in this market - are they going up or down?
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With every development comes new opportunites, some of which could be in India. Have you considered the country as a part of your diversification strategy?
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
A collar is an option strategy that allows some protection while maintaining some upside potential. What investment would you like to use a collar strategy for?
Hans Oudshoorn,
Trainer Academy
There are arguments to be made for many commodities to have upside. Which are you paying the most attention to this quarter?
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
In a very challenging macro environment, which currencies do you think will come out on top?
John J. Hardy,
Head of FX Strategy
