back
Details Cookies
Hong Kong S.A.R
Cookie policy

This website uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience by enabling, optimising and analysing site operations, as well as to provide personalised ad content and allow you to connect to social media. By choosing “Accept all” you consent to the use of cookies and the related processing of personal data. Select “Manage consent” to manage your consent preferences. You can change your preferences or retract your consent at any time via the cookie policy page. Please view our cookie policy here and our privacy policy here

Chart of the Week : Hong Kong’s international cargo vessels traffic Chart of the Week : Hong Kong’s international cargo vessels traffic Chart of the Week : Hong Kong’s international cargo vessels traffic

Chart of the Week : Hong Kong’s international cargo vessels traffic

Macro
CD
Christopher Dembik

Head of Macro Analysis

Summary:  Our Macro Chartmania series collects Macrobond data and focuses on a single chart chosen for its relevance. This week, we look at maritime data and especially Hong Kong's international cargo vessels traffic.


Click here to download this week's full edition of Macro Chartmania.

The current congestion situation in international ports, especially in South East Asia, resulting in cargos staying anchor and waiting for their turn to enter is likely to remain in place into 2022. Located at the doorstep of the Pearl River Delta, Hong Kong is one of the busiest container ports in China and in the world, along with Ningbo, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. There were only 1358 international arrivals of cargo vessels in last September – the last month for which data are available. This is one of the lowest figures on record. Before the outbreak, the number of arrivals was almost twice as high. In tonnage terms, the figure is striking too. In September, the tonnage was about 17.8 millions tons – a low point since 2000. In the below chart, we see the data expressed as a 12 month rolling sum. Congestion and bottlenecks in moving container traffic partially explain the bad numbers. The bottlenecks reflect distressed supply on the production side and the impact of the zero Covid policy in China. The policy will prevail at least until the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing. We estimate the shutdown of strategic ports during one month causes bottlenecks that take about 6 to 8 weeks to be absorbed. This was the case when the Chinese authorities closed the port of Yantian last June due to Covid cases. Natural disasters can make the situation worse too. In mid-October, the typhoon Kompasu scattered ships out of Hong Kong for a few days, for instance. Expect port congestion to weigh on the economic recovery into 2022 and contribute to overall inflationary pressures. Our baseline is that global central banks will need to hike interest rates much faster than anticipated next year to fight persistent inflationary pressures. The U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are in the frontline. 

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-hk/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited
19th Floor
Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower
12 Queen’s Road Central
Hong Kong

Contact Saxo

Select region

Hong Kong S.A.R
Hong Kong S.A.R

Saxo Capital Markets HK is a company authorised and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in securities); Type 2 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Futures Contract); Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged foreign exchange trading); Type 4 Regulated Activity (Advising on securities) and Type 9 Regulated Activity (Asset Management) licenses (CE No. AVD061). Registered address: 19th Floor, Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower, 12 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong

By clicking on certain links on this site, you are aware and agree to leave the website of Saxo Capital Markets, proceed on to the linked site managed by Saxo Group and where you will be subject to the terms of that linked site.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

Please note that the information on this site and any product and services we offer are not targeted at investors residing in the United States and Japan, and are not intended for distribution to, or use by any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.