Weekly FX Chartbook: Fresh USD upside from hawkish bolts and trade threats Weekly FX Chartbook: Fresh USD upside from hawkish bolts and trade threats Weekly FX Chartbook: Fresh USD upside from hawkish bolts and trade threats

Weekly FX Chartbook: Fresh USD upside from hawkish bolts and trade threats

Forex 5 minutes to read
Charu Chanana

Head of FX Strategy

Key points:

  • USD: Fresh leg higher likely with higher-for-longer emphasized and trade tensions in focus
  • EUR: Upside limited by June rate cut hopes
  • JPY: Still a buy-on-dips towards 155
  • GBP: Supported by buoyant equity sentiment
  • AUD: Threats from commodities pullback and China tariffs
  • CNH: Downside risks from tariff threats but authorities remain ready to support
    Precious metals led the declines last week after recent momentum-driven rally, and more hawkish Fed messaging this week could take a further toll.
    Our FX Scorecard shows momentum in yen, CHF and CNH is the weakest with low volatility continuing to fuel carry trading, while high yielders like NZD and GBP outperform.
    Forex COT to the week of May 21 saw dollar longs pared for a fourth consecutive week. Renewed demand for EUR, GBP and AUD underpinned, while shorts were added in JPY and CAD.

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