FX Breakout Monitor: EUR breaking lower nearly everywhere

Forex 4 minutes to read

John Hardy

Head of FX Strategy

Summary:  The euro is the currency showing the most directional momentum at the moment and has broken lower in nearly every euro pair we track. The late US dollar rally, meanwhile, has cooled as some commodity and EM currencies have bounced here, while sterling has suddenly jolted into action over the last couple of sessions and is worth tracking for potential breakouts today.


Today’s Breakout monitor

The FX Breakout Monitor is a concise PDF overview of all current and recent price breakouts for the short and medium term for major FX pairs and spot silver and gold.

A PDF of today’s Breakout Monitor

Below is a snapshot of the full list of currency pairs we track for the breakout monitor. The Euro downside breakouts dominate the picture in the universe of pairs we track, as nearly every Euro pair has broken lower, today with even EURAUD in play. Note that while the recent USD rally has cooled, EURUSD has made a significant break lower and USDCHF is sniffing at an upside breakout today, while other USD pairs (like AUDUSD, USDCAD and USD/EM pairs) have posted pivot levels that are the next focal point on further broad USD upside.

Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group

Finally, we note that sterling is on the move today, especially in the wake of a Boris Johnson cabinet shuffle today and we focus on GBPCHF as an interesting breakout candidate below.

Today’s Breakout Highlight: GBPCHF
The weak euro story is fairly well established at this point, but one of the newest movers in recent sessions, and especially today, is sterling, which has moved sharply higher across the board, especially in the wake of today’s political moves that may be lighting a fire under market anticipation of a large fiscal stimulus announcement at the coming March budget statement. UK yields were sharply higher and sterling was stronger on the day. Besides the recent EURGBP breakdown, we have also seen a reversal (so far) in the recent GBPUSD breakdown and GBPCHF, shown below is eyeing a new 19-day high close, though we are still far, far below the 49-day breakout levels. Interesting to watch CHF as well as GBP here as EURCHF has been on a long grind lower and USDCHF is also mulling a breakout higher on today’s close.

Source: Saxo Group
Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-hk/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Capital Markets HK is a company authorised and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in securities); Type 2 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Futures Contract) and Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged foreign exchange trading) licenses (CE No. AVD061). Registered address: Rooms 2001-02, 20/F York House, The Landmark, 15 Queen's Road Central, Hong Kong

By clicking on certain links on this site, you are aware and agree to leave the website of Saxo Capital Markets, proceed on to the linked site managed by Saxo Group and where you will be subject to the terms of that linked site.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

Please note that the information on this site and any product and services we offer are not targeted at investors residing in the United States and Japan, and are not intended for distribution to, or use by any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.