The Week Ahead: Gold hits records, Fed is ahead & Can Nike just do it?

The Week Ahead: Gold hits records, Fed is ahead & Can Nike just do it?

Jessica Amir
Market Strategist

Summary:  With bank liquidity concerns picking up, and ahead of the Fed meeting, gold surged to over $2,000 for the first time in over a year, while the metal could gain further legs if a Fed pause is penned. Mega-cap tech stocks such as Alphabet and Microsoft rallied 12% on the week as a testament to their monopolistic markets and cashflows. Oil and copper sink amid fragile sentiment. Interest rate outlooks and FX rates hang on the Fed, the BOE, the Swiss National Bank, and Norges Bank meetings this week. And could Nike's results delight as they typically do?

Market noise gets louder. UBS takes over Credit Suisse - Gold claims safe haven status

Amid bank liquidity concerns picking up, lingering inflation, and the Fed meeting ahead, we’re seeing volatility and caution pick up as well in markets, which has pushed the safe-haven gold price to over $2,000 an ounce for the first in over 12 months. Gold also gained further wings after UBS agreed to takeover Credit Suisse for $3.3 Billion, with the transaction leaving $17 billion of risky bonds worthless. So, we think caution is warranted as some bonds will likely be de-rated. So, some investors are cushioning their portfolios, topping up gold, short-term government bonds, and buying the safe-haven Japanese Yen (JPY).

Reflecting on gold, ahead of the Fed meeting this week – we know a hike is expected. But if the Fed signals a pause in rates or maybe even a cut in rates, then that would be supportive for gold to move higher. The last three times the Fed paused hikes, gold rallied. In 2019 gold rallied over 60% to a new high when the Fed paused rate hikes. It’s also worth noting buying of gold via ETFs rose for the first week this year.

Mega-caps shine, with Alphabet and Microsoft shares lifting 12% in a week, as a testament to their monopolistic markets   

Some Mega-cap tech stocks have somewhat been looked at, as a quasi-haven play, as a testament to their cash flow strength, job cuts leading to savings, and customer books. The Nasdaq 100 is now 17% up from its December low. Last week alone, Alphabet (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT) shares rose over 12% each, Amazon (AMZN) and Meta (META) gained 9%, and Apple (AAPL) followed. It is worth considering some investors and traders are using protective puts on such positions as these, to cushion their portfolios should markets turn lower.

The KBW Bank Index fell over 14% last week with hedge funds short selling banks with loan portfolios that tend to suffer in a recession or credit contraction, that includes shorting commercial real estate bank lenders.

Moving to growth proxies; oil and copper. The oil price fell sharply last week, down 13% with the banking crisis weighing on sentiment. Focus in the week for oil will be the Fed meeting, and for oil support at around $62.

What’s on the economic horizon for the rest of the week 

It seems the penny is dropping, most central banks hiked interest rates too late and then rose rates too fast. And now the world is reeling with a banking crisis.

The Fed meets Wednesday and expected to hike by 0.25%, UK’s Bank of England is also expected to hike by 0.25%. On Thursday the Swiss National Bank is expected to hike by 0.5% with Norges Bank to hike by 0.25%. The focus will be on their outlooks and the banking sector risks, with the market looking for evidence of a rate hike pause.

And if we do see a pause or hints of a cut, that would theoretically be positive for growth stocks, commodities including oil and copper, and risk-on FX rates, such as the Australian dollar (AUD), the Kiwi (NZD), and Canadian dollar (CAD), Norwegian Krone (NOK), Swedish krona (SEK). 

Company news to be across that could move sectors 

Nike’s (NKE) shares have run up about 18% in the the six-month ahead of the retail giant announcing quarterly results on Tuesday, which are expected to be buoyed by strength across all regions, except China. Revenue is expected to rise by about 6% to $11.5 billion. Nike has increased EPS estimates in 8 consecutive quarters, and only missed revenue expectations twice in that span. We see its sales outlook being upgraded in 2023, given that its most profitable region, China, has reopened and that should allow excess inventory in 2023 to reduce quicker than expected.  

GameStop (GME) earnings are also out on Tuesday. 

China’s Tencent (00700), reports Wednesday, and Meituan (3690) on Friday, with both to be watched as indicators for what we can expect from the Chinese reopening trade consumer spending behavior. Tencent is reporter higher income with growth from gaming and advertising, offsetting weakness in cloud growth. 

The world’s largest wheat company, General Mills (GIS) reports on Thursday. And we have Chinese energy giants, China Petroleum (386), and China’s coal giant, China Shenhua Energy (1088) reporting Friday


Stay tuned to for 
daily updates, and inspiration
For a detailed weekly report, tune into our 
Spotlight report.  
For a global look at markets – tune into our 


The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
- Full disclaimer (

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo or its affiliates.

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited
19th Floor
Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower
12 Queen’s Road Central
Hong Kong

Contact Saxo

Select region

Hong Kong S.A.R
Hong Kong S.A.R

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited (“Saxo”) is a company authorised and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Saxo holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Securities); Type 2 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Futures Contract); Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading); Type 4 Regulated Activity (Advising on Securities) and Type 9 Regulated Activity (Asset Management) licenses (CE No. AVD061). Registered address: 19th Floor, Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower, 12 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. Please click here to view the relevant risk disclosure statements.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

The information or the products and services referred to on this site may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and services offered on this website are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity residing in the United States and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.