Details Cookies
Hong Kong S.A.R
Cookie policy

This website uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience by enabling, optimising and analysing site operations, as well as to provide personalised ad content and allow you to connect to social media. By choosing “Accept all” you consent to the use of cookies and the related processing of personal data. Select “Manage consent” to manage your consent preferences. You can change your preferences or retract your consent at any time via the cookie policy page. Please view our cookie policy here and our privacy policy here

 Technical Update - S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones Industrial  Technical Update - S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones Industrial  Technical Update - S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones Industrial

Technical Update - S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones Industrial

Equities 3 minutes to read
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Summary:  S&P 500 has lost half of gains since October. But could lose more going in to 2023
Nasdaq 100 is fast approaching its October low and could drop below in 2023 maybe even before year-end
Dow Jones testing falling trendline. Will medium-term uptrend be reversed or could it hold on?

S&P 500 has lost 50% of gains since October trough. Touching 3,800 during yesterday’s session a minor bounce the next couple of days could be seen. However, the trend is down confirmed by RSI closing below 40. Strong support at around 3,720. A close below that support S&P 500 will be set for a move towards October trough at around 3,491.

The leading US Equities Index was rejected at the falling trendline and has resumed its downtrend on the medium-term – see weekly chart - indicating a move to 3,200 in Q1-Q2 2023.

There is a cluster of Fibonacci and support levels around 3,200; 3,258 is the 1.382 projection of the October-December correction and 3,200 is the bottom of the Consolidation area back in 2020. A few points below, is the 0.618 retracement of the entire 2020-2022 uptrend at 3,195.
RSI is still showing divergence however, but if RSI closes below its lower rising trend and below 40 threshold a move lower to the 3,200 level is in the card.
For S&P 500 to reverse this bearish scenario a close above 4,100   

Source all charts and data: Saxo Group

Nasdaq 100 touched the lower trendline in what seems like a slightly rising channel. A bearish break below is quite likely supported by RSI yesterday closed below 40 threshold i.e., in negative sentiment.

Nasdaq 100 is on course to test October low at around 10,440.
However, a move lower (below October low) is not unlikely. If Nasdaq 100 closes below 10,440 a move below 10K should be expected. Support at around 9,736 just a few points below the 1,382 projection of the October-December correction at 9,781.
If weekly RSI closes back below 40 this bearish scenario is likely to play out. A daily close above 12,167 is needed to reverse this bearish scenario.

Dow Jones Industrial Index is testing the medium-term falling trend (black) line. RSI has showed divergence for a couple of weeks warning of a likely trend reversal/correction. Currently RSI is still in positive sentiment though, it needs to close below 40 to change that.
If RSI closes below 40 and Dow Jones breaks below the falling trendline further sell-off down to support at around 31,738 could be seen.
However, the 200, 100 and 55 daily SMA’s provide some support. 200 SMA is currently flat around the 0.382 retracement around 32,400.

Medium-term Dow Jones is technically in and uptrend with positive sentiment but if S&P 500 and Nasdaq performs as described above Dow Jones will not go untouched and could drop to around 30K i.e., 0.786 retracement of the October- December uptrend.
For Dow Jones to resume its uptrend a move above 34,712 is needed.


RSI divergence explained: When the price of an instrument is making a new high/low but RSI values are not making new high/low at the same time. That is a sign of imbalance in the market and a weakening of the uptrend/downtrend. Divergence or imbalance in the market can go on for quite some time but not forever. It is an indication of an exhaustion of the trend


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
- Full disclaimer (

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited
19th Floor
Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower
12 Queen’s Road Central
Hong Kong

Contact Saxo

Select region

Hong Kong S.A.R
Hong Kong S.A.R

Saxo Capital Markets HK is a company authorised and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in securities); Type 2 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Futures Contract); Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged foreign exchange trading); Type 4 Regulated Activity (Advising on securities) and Type 9 Regulated Activity (Asset Management) licenses (CE No. AVD061). Registered address: 19th Floor, Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower, 12 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong

By clicking on certain links on this site, you are aware and agree to leave the website of Saxo Capital Markets, proceed on to the linked site managed by Saxo Group and where you will be subject to the terms of that linked site.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

Please note that the information on this site and any product and services we offer are not targeted at investors residing in the United States and Japan, and are not intended for distribution to, or use by any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.