Nasdaq 100 earnings show strength in Q4 Nasdaq 100 earnings show strength in Q4 Nasdaq 100 earnings show strength in Q4

Nasdaq 100 earnings show strength in Q4

Peter Garnry

Head of Equity Strategy

Summary:  The Nasdaq 100 has seen EPS grow 5% q/q in Q4 and revenue increase by 16.7% compared to a year ago highlighting that US technology companies still offer a rare pocket of high growth. Equity valuations on Nasdaq 100 companies are still elevated and the overall downside risks persist in US equities due to tightening financial conditions, but the earnings season is showing why the US technology sector still has a place in the portfolio during inflation. We also highlight this week's earnings releases with US heavyweights such as Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and Amazon reporting earnings.

Earnings grow 5% q/q in Nasdaq 100

The Q4 earnings season is firing on all cylinders with this week being the most important one, which we cover further down, and around  33% of the companies in the S&P 500 Index has now reported earnings. After this week we will have enough data to make conclusions on the Q4 earnings season but already now a preliminary picture is emerging.

The Nasdaq 100 has seen its EPS grow 5.2% q/q while the MSCI World has seen EPS grow only by 0.3% q/q highlighting the underlying trend for more than a decade, that the US technology sector is where the growth is, even during inflation. While the S&P 500 and MSCI World have seen net profit margin decline 0.1%-point and 0.2%-point q/q in Q4, Nasdaq 100 has seen its net profit margin expand 0.4%-point suggesting less impact from inflation on technology companies. This should drum up some demand from investors.

The recent selloff in Nasdaq 100 has pushed the equity valuation to 3.2% free cash flow yield which is still on the expensive side in a historical context, but with revenue up 16% the past year and revenue having grown 11.5% annualized since 2004, investors will likely continue to maintain their exposure to the highest quality technology companies. However, the tier 2 and tier 3 (bubble stocks) technology companies will likely continue to feel the pain from tighter financial conditions and portfolio flows into commodity companies and other related inflation hedges.

Despite solid fundamentals from high quality Nasdaq 100 companies our stance is still that equities have downside risks due to an elevated VIX Index, inverted VIX forward curve, and tightening of financial conditions. Our view is still that investors should balance growth components with inflation components with pricing power such as commodity sector, travel, defence, mega caps, logistics and semiconductors.

A monster earnings week ahead

The earnings season really kicks into gear this week with releases from US heavyweights such as PayPal, Exxon Mobil, UPS, Starbucks, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, AbbVie, Qualcomm, Honeywell, and Amazon. In Europe many large companies will also report such as UBS, Novo Nordisk, Orsted, Banco Santander, Novartis, Nokia, Infineon Technologies, ABB, Roche and UniCredit. Unless US long-term interest rates move higher we expect earnings this week to bolster sentiment and support the view that companies for now are able to pass on inflationary pressures.

Monday: Ryanair, Komatsu, NXP Semiconductors

Tuesday: Novozymes, Keyence, UBS Group, Exxon Mobil, PayPal, UPS, AMD, Starbucks, Gilead Sciences, GM, Electronic Arts

Wednesday: Novo Nordisk, Orsted, Kone, Sony, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Denso, Prudential, Telenor, Banco Santander, Hexagon, Swedbank, Novartis, Alphabet, Meta Platforms (Facebook), Alibaba, AbbVie, Qualcomm, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Ferrari, Spotify Technology, DR Horton

Thursday: Suncor Energy, Danske Bank, Nokia, Dassault Systemes, Siemens Healthineers, Infineon Technologies, Merck KGaA, Enel, Nintendo, SoftBank, Mitsubishi, Takeda, Shell, ING Groep, BBVA, Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy, Nordea, Roche, ABB, Amazon, Eli Lilly, Merck & Co, Honeywell, ConocoPhillips, Estee Lauder, Ford Motor, Fortinet,

Friday: Carlsberg, Sanofi, Vinci, UniCredit, Intesa Sanpaolo, Assa Abloy, Bristol-Myers, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
- Full disclaimer (

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited
19th Floor
Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower
12 Queen’s Road Central
Hong Kong

Contact Saxo

Select region

Hong Kong S.A.R
Hong Kong S.A.R

Saxo Capital Markets HK is a company authorised and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in securities); Type 2 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Futures Contract); Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged foreign exchange trading); Type 4 Regulated Activity (Advising on securities) and Type 9 Regulated Activity (Asset Management) licenses (CE No. AVD061). Registered address: 19th Floor, Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower, 12 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong

By clicking on certain links on this site, you are aware and agree to leave the website of Saxo Capital Markets, proceed on to the linked site managed by Saxo Group and where you will be subject to the terms of that linked site.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

Please note that the information on this site and any product and services we offer are not targeted at investors residing in the United States and Japan, and are not intended for distribution to, or use by any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.