The winners and losers from inflation
Since 8 November 2020, inflation expectations have risen dramatically reflecting a much faster reopening path due to effective Covid-19 vaccines. With rising inflation expectations, the discussion about transitory vs. permanently higher inflation rate has raged among investors and economists. Consensus still bets on transitory inflation, while we are leaning towards more permanent inflation driven by historical stimulus not seen in size since economic records began after WWII. If we are right that the world economy is flirting dangerously with inflation dynamics that could drastically counter the trend in inflation over the past three decades, equity investors must be prepared. So, what gains and losses during inflation?
If look at our theme baskets and how they have performed since 8 November 2020, we see a clear tendency. Companies operating in the physical world have gained the most with themes like India, logistics, and commodity sector being the best performing themes, while China consumer & technology, gaming and bubble stocks themes have done worst.