Summary: This week we could either see the equity rally validated or stunted, bringing back a heavy risk off tone. The major concern is that inflationary pressures are creeping back up again, gas supply has been limited for 10 days, and agriculture demand is overtaking supply again. We see three main catalysts for equites this week; the US CPI read on Wednesday, US earnings season kick off for Q2 which is likely to disappoint and thirdly covid cases in China beginning to rise again. We pull apart APAC equities moving, cover what could be next for Musk Vs Twitter, and why the AUDJPY is a focus ahead of key Aussie jobs data. Plus why USDJPY is key ahead of US inflation numbers.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index up 5% off its 2022 low, fueled by Corn prices rising almost 6% in the Asian session, and Wheat prices rising 6.6% in the American session as demand growth is now back in focus, reminding market participants of lack of supply. Meanwhile Gas prices jump 5.3% as gas supply to Europe is reduced for the next 10 days. We think this issue will likely cause a premium in risk in gas prices this week.
Elon Musk now officially wants to terminate the $44 billion agreement to buy Twitter (TWTR), which sent its shares 5% lower after hours. This is something we at Saxo expected and wrote about last week. Given Musk might not be making the financial outlay, Tesla (TSLA) gained ~2.3% after hours. However, now a legal battle will be on the cards with Twitter Chairman Bret Taylor reportedly going to take the matter to court this week. If the judge rules against Musk, Elon could be forced to pay $54.20 a share. If the ruling in his Musk’s favour, he might walk away with having to pay a $1 billion breakup fee.
Australia's ASX200 started the trading week in the red, down 0.9% while Japan’s market (NIKKEI) trades up 1%. Also weighing on broad sentiment is that the US jobs report on Friday was stronger than expected, which gives the Fed ammunition to rise rates by 0.75% at its next July meeting. Meanwhile, it also seems optimism is fading on some US tariffs being reduced on Chinese imports into the US, with a decision still being in limbo. However in the ASX session, coal miners lead with New Hope (NHC) and Whitehaven (WHC) up 3% and 2% after coal Newcastle futures rose to new highs. On the downside, tech businesses listed on the ASX bleed heavily with EML Payments (EML) seeing the biggest drop of 21% after its CEO walked
For Sunday July 10, mainland China reported 352 new locally transmitted cases, including 69 cases in Shanghai. After finding the first case of more contagious BA.5 sub-strain of the omicron variant, Shanghai announced for another round of mass testing. Separately, Macao reported 93 bases for Saturday and announced most businesses, including casinos will close for 7 days. Macao gaming stocks plunged 5% to 6% across the board. Internet stocks declined following China’s State Administration for Market Regulation fined Alibaba (09988.xhkg) and Tencent (00700.xhkg) for past monopolistic actions. While the amount of the fines were negligible, the actions remined investors about regulatory risks over Chinese internet companies. Alibaba fell 6% and Tencent declined 3%. Hang Seng Index (HSI.I), Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH.I) and CSI300 (000300.I) lost 2.7%, 3.9% and 2% respectively.
The fate of Europe and the global economy, hinges of the future of Russian gas flows. As per our Saxo Spotlight released today, this weeks focus will be on (US CPI data out Wednesday).Next week will be the ECB and the Fed policy decision the week. But they arguably matter much less to global markets and then if Russia instigates a sudden energy shortage in Europe. As such, we expect the European regions assets to trade with a risk-premium until there is further clarity and developments. The gas pipeline will be turned off for 10-days maintenance. But nervousness remains till the pipeline is turned back on as scheduled. Reprieve came from Canada at the weekend, agreeing to make a sanction exemption to export the key ingredient needed. However the largest overhang is if Russia shuts down its oil exports for a month.
PPI slowed to 6.1% in June (vs Bloomberg consensus: 6.0%) from 6.4% in May. CPI rose to 2.5% in June (vs Bloomberg consensus: 2.4%) from 2.1% in May. In our view, the rise in CPI in China, plus aggressive overseas central bank hiking, will limit the room for the PBoC to cut rates. The key channel of easing going forward will remain being through urging banks to lend.
With divergence between Australia and Japan’s policies get wider, at Saxo, we remain focused on the AUDJPY, which is closely watched by those in Australia and Japan. Today, Japan received another indicator which give the BOJ ammunition to keep rates at record lows. Japanese Machinery orders fell for the first time in three months, which suggests Japanese firms might be delaying spending due to rising energy and costs. In Australia we believe this week, the RBA will gain more ammunition to aggressively rise rates over the coming months. Last week we observed Australian exports surging to a record all-time high. While coal futures pushed higher again in the Asian session today. We see no signs of Australia’s most profitable export (now coal) slowing down, which supports the price of the AUD. This week business confidence data out tomorrow, and consumer confidence out the day after (Wednesday) will be closely watched. But the important unemployment data out on Thursday will be watched like a hawk. June’s unemployment rate is likely to fall to brand new monthly record low of 3.8%, which gives the RBA room to rise rates over 0.5% at its August meeting. This supports the AUD moving higher yet again against the JPY (AUDJPY)
The USD/JPY may again be the easiest cross to see dollar strength in after several weeks of consolidation. Until mid-June the long USD/JPY was the dollar trade of 2022. But then recessionary risks rose again, which prompted shifts. As mentioned in our Q3 outlook, inflation is the Feds greatest threat right now, which means higher US yields are coming. In such an environment, the yen is typically pressured lower. And this might mean the USDJPY looks it will be favoured again
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Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Uncover the shifting focus in 2024's FX markets towards growth resilience and relativity, away from bond yields and inflation stories.
Embrace the metal revolution on the commodity market in the coming year, with a focus on gold, silver, platinum, copper, and aluminum.
The gloominess of geopolitical conflicts and the repetitive nature of political agendas. What else does 2024 hold in store for us?
The disheartening cycle of unresolved geopolitical conflicts, the rise of polarizing political parties, and the stagnation of productivity.
Understand China's political landscape in Q4 2023 and the impact on counter-cyclical initiatives, with a focus on the pivotal Q1 2024.
