Technical Update - Dutch gas collapsing where US Nat gas is bouncing. Crude oil could be reversing the downtrend with Gasoline leading the way Technical Update - Dutch gas collapsing where US Nat gas is bouncing. Crude oil could be reversing the downtrend with Gasoline leading the way Technical Update - Dutch gas collapsing where US Nat gas is bouncing. Crude oil could be reversing the downtrend with Gasoline leading the way

Technical Update - Dutch gas collapsing where US Nat gas is bouncing. Crude oil could be reversing the downtrend with Gasoline leading the way

Commodities 4 minutes to read
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Summary:  Dutch Gas is in total collapse taking out key support. Could be headed for sub-40
Henry Hub Natural Gas bouncing but can it get upside traction or resume downtrend?
Brent and WTI Crude oil could be reversing down trend. Both close to test key resistance levels
Gasoline has reversed down trend and is set for higher levels. Is Gasoline the canary in the coalmine for oil

Today's Saxo Market Call podcast.
Today's Market Quick Take from the Saxo Strategy Team

Dutch Gas
has taken out support at around 62.52 and is headed for next support at around 48.22 but is likely to drop to stronger support at around 39.90. RSI below 40 i.e., negative sentiment supports the bearish outlook that is likely to take Dutch Gas lower.

200 Weekly SMA currently at 52.57 will provide some support but the support at 48.22 is not that strong. Weekly RSI is below 40 for the first time since 2020 indicating new lows are likely.
For Dutch Gas to reverse this bearish scenario the first indication would be to close back above 88.75

Source: Tradingview
Source: Tradingview

Henry Hub Natural Gas reached 1.382 projection of the latest correction and has at the time of writing jumped back above support at 3.53.
Weekly RSI is below 40 but there is no divergence indicating we could see Natural Gas trading lower. If Natural Gas takes out last weeks low at 3.38 it could be hit by another sell-off down to 2.86 or even to strong support at 2.41

If Natural Gas keeps bouncing and RSI closes above its upper falling trendline it is an indication of a likely trend reversal that could take Natural Gas up to 0.382 retracement at around 5.075 short-term

Source: Saxo Group
Source: Saxo Group

Brent Crude oil is still trading in a wide falling channel but the latest selling in early January didn’t perform a new low which could be an indication of a trend exhaustion. A close above 87 AND a close above the upper falling trend line will be next strong indication of a trend reversal that could take Brent to around 98. That scenario will be further confirmed if RSI closes above 60 threshold.
However, the 200 daily SMA is coming down providing resistance and could cut short the uptrend to the 0.786 retracement of the latest and exhaustive sell-off and the 0.382 retracement of the entire downtrend at around 94.30.

If that scenario does not play out (Brent closing above 87) Brent is set to continue lower and likely to once again break below support around 77 and a move towards strong support at around 69.24

Source: Saxo Group

WTI Crude oil is testing medium-term falling trendline and 55 daily SMA. RSI is still below 60 threshold for turning positive. If WTI closes above 81.50 the downtrend has reversed short-term and could start a rally up to resistance around 93.48 where also the 200 daily SMA is providing resistance. That 200 daily SMA resistance could cut short the uptrend to the 0.786 retracement at around 88.68 or the 0.382 retracement of the entire downtrend since July 2022 at around 90.56

If WTI fails to close above 81.50 and RSI is rejected at 60 threshold, the bear trend is set to resume. WTI could drop to the 70 level but further weakness down to 68.60-64.45 could be seen.

Source: Saxo Group


Is Gasoline the Canary in the coal mine? Gasoline has broken above falling trendline and closed above resistance at 252.33 and is now in a bullish short-term trend. RSI is above 60 confirming that picture.
The new uptrend could take Gasoline up to test the resistance at around 301.16. However, the daily 200 SMA coming down will provide some resistance that could cut the uptrend short possibly at the 0.786 retracement of the latest and exhaustive sell-off at 279.95 or up to the 0.382 retracement of the entire downtrend at 290.11.  
IF Gasoline drops back below 223.56 the down trend has resumed for new lows

Source: Saxo Group

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
- Full disclaimer (

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo or its affiliates.

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited
19th Floor
Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower
12 Queen’s Road Central
Hong Kong

Contact Saxo

Select region

Hong Kong S.A.R
Hong Kong S.A.R

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited (“Saxo”) is a company authorised and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Saxo holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Securities); Type 2 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Futures Contract); Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading); Type 4 Regulated Activity (Advising on Securities) and Type 9 Regulated Activity (Asset Management) licenses (CE No. AVD061). Registered address: 19th Floor, Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower, 12 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. Please click here to view the relevant risk disclosure statements.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

The information or the products and services referred to on this site may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and services offered on this website are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity residing in the United States and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.