Macro: Sandcastle economics
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Technical Update - Declining Gold, Silver, Platinum and Copper closing in on key levels
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Across the board Metals are in decline after taking out key levels. The could all drop to next key support levels:
Gold key support around 1,800
Silver key support around 20
Platinum key support at 822
Copper key support at 354.50
Gold has continued its sell-off breaking straight through support at 1,870 closing in on key support at around 1,804.
RSI is showing negative sentiment with no divergence indicating lower levels from here. It is however, signaling that Gold is moving in to oversold territory. An exhaustive move down to 1,800 level should be expected. 0.618 Fibo retracement is just a few dollars below the key support.
From the weekly chart we can see how the 1,804 support is key but also fairly strong. Key because the medium-term to longer-term picture will reverse to bearish if closing a week below. But also strong with the 200 weekly Moving Average coming up adding to the support.
Medium-term Gold is in a bear trend but longer-term still in an uptrend.
Current level is also around the lower part of the Cloud (blue shaded area) which often adds to the support
Silver sold off straight from the 22.15 support down to next support at around 21.25 – and below.
Silver has broken bearish out the Descending triangle like pattern – see weekly chart and could be destined for a move down to strong support at around 19.90.
To demolish the bearish trend a close back above 22.15 is needed. If that scenario plays out it could merely just be a short relief, all Moving Averages are declining and both 55 and 100 Moving Averages are crossing below the 200 which is illustrating a very bearish underlying sentiment.
RSI is in negative sentiment with no divergence indicating likely lower Silver levels Platinum has closed below support at around 883 confirming downtrend. A down trend that could take the metal down to around 822.
To reverse the bearish trend a close above 951 is needed.
Copper is at the time of writing below support at around 362.70. A close below is likely to push Copper to test key support at around 354.50.
Almost similar to Silver (Silver often seems to be leading Copper) Copper is breaking bearish out of a Descending triangle like pattern.
A close below 354.50 could send Copper out in a tailspin down to Q3 2022 lows around 323-313.
For Copper to reverse the short-term down trend a close above 382 is needed
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