Technical Update - Rising yields ripe for a correction
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Yields have been rising rapidly the past 6 months nearing strong resistance levels. A correction should be expected before the rise continue
US 10 year Treasury yields are testing 3%, closing in on the 3.25% resistance. 3% level is the Inverted Shoulder-Head-Shoulder target outlined in previous analysis.
The US 10 year Treasury Future has reached its Shoulder-Head-Shoulder target extending it close to strong key support at around 117½. A correction should be expected from here.
With the past 4-5 weeks of selling pressure a correction is likely possibly up to test the longer term rising trend line i.e. up to around 121½. However, trend is down and key support is not unlikely to be taken out. A possible picture is illustrated by arrows on the monthly Futures chart.
RSI is in extreme territory currently at 22 indicating massive oversold but with no divergence. A correction on the Future is likely to lead RSI to test its falling trend line.
The US Treasury Bond future has broken the long term rising trend line hovering around 200 monthly SMA. Further down side to test the support at 136½ is likely.
Euro Bund has broken several key levels in massive sell-offs and is close to strong support area around 151.50-148.00. Correction around that area should be expected before sell-off is likely to resume.
RSI is below 40 threshold for the first time in decades underlining the negative sentiment.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Energy crisis could turn energy stocks into secular winnerWith long-term expected returns for the global energy sector close to 10%, we look at 40 stocks that could be set to cash in.
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.