Podcast: Fed credibility on the line. Financial conditions are both tight and loose
Saxo Market Call
Summary: Today we look at Fed credibility on the line in coming days with the Fed's preferred inflation measure, the PCE Deflator and Core levels for February is set for release later today and the March payrolls and earnings data is up tomorrow. The backdrop of financial conditions is a mixed bag, with market measures showing easing and a lack of Fed credibility while higher rates point to a significant tightening. Will the Fed respond to market conditions? We also look at EU yields, Russian default risks, US possibly set to release strategic reserves to push oil prices lower ahead of today's OPEC+ meeting and the most important planting report in years from the USDA later today. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.