Podcast: Back to square one on geopolitics, Fed expectations recede
Saxo Market Call
Summary: Today we look at Fed expectations ratcheting lower still despite a very strong January US Retail Sales report and a non-dovish set of FOMC minutes, an indication that the market felt it had taken Fed expectations too high recently (also making it easier now for the Fed to surprise again on the hawkish side). We look at the need for the Fed to steepen the yield curve and the difficulty it may find in doing so, the impressive run back higher in gold and the next levels to focus on there, UK yields and the next steps from the Bank of England and more. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, with John J. Hardy on FX and hosting.
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Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.