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Has market made up its mind no matter what Nvidia delivers tonight?
Summary: Today, a look at how the market may treat the Nvidia earnings call tonight almost irrespective of the quality of its results if big money has made up its mind what it wants to do with AI names before the event risk itself. We also delve further into what is at stake as Trump continues to go after political control of the Fed, particularly for gold. Also: soybeans and lumber are two commodities that are heavily affected by Trump tariffs and the prospects for trade deals, the euro still could face a big test here, and much more. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodities Strategy Ole Hansen and Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.
Today’s links
Ole’s piece on Trouble at the Fed Supports Gold and silver. FTAlphaville article chiming in with headline of the day yesterday on the implications of Trump’s go at controlling the Fed: Pray for the US Treasury Market - Thank you for your attention to this matter.
After our Ole’s appearance on the MacroVoices podcast the prior week, one of our favourite and outspoken macro strategists Michael Every is out with an appearance on the podcast last week.
Found it! The Apple white paper suggesting the LLM’s (Large Language Models) used in AI are incapable of reason.
A Chat GPT prompt for all US defense companies with a market cap of USD 5 billion or more (can’t vouch for quality of results, but probably 90%+ of relevant names) if you are interested in delving into the kinds of names that the US government might like equity stakes in after US Commerce Secretary Lutnick’s comments on investing public equity in defense companies yesterday.
Tenth time was the charm as Starship 10 succeeds on all parameters - watch the spectacular launch here. Still needs many repeats and much heavier payloads to prove that it is reliable after so many birthing pains to date. Oh another thing - not sure what it will be useful for except for robots and large scientific launches into deeper space as humans are never leaving earth anytime soon, least of all to live on Mars, which they can’t.
Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo previews Nvidia earnings and CrowdStrike earnings reports with a long-term investor perspective.
Chart of the Day - Alphabet (GOOGL) broadening top?
A great test of a spectacular technical formation in coming days and weeks will be whether the classic broadening top formation that is forming in Alphabet’s stock price will resolve into a bull extension or bearish setup for the stock. According to pattern legend Charles Bukowski (that book is a favorite of mine), the bearish entry works more than the bullish one and is on a third touch of the rising line of tops, but it is not considered one of the better patterns. One of the problems with a formation like a broadening top is that it requires so many touch points to come out perfect. As you can see in the chart below the last time Alphabet was in a major bear market, it was on the heels of a broadening top pattern that didn’t quite complete the third top trend touch before selling off. Set for a repeat this time? We’ll see…
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