Morning Brew March 11 2026

Good morning,

The war in Iran keeps markets firmly in its grip, and the key question is how long the military engagement will continue. The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the greater and more lasting the impact will be. While tones from the US administration sound optimistic, Donald Trump was also certain he could resolve the Ukraine war in a day—and look at where we are…

US indexes ended the day little changed and remained calm overnight. Europe and Asia were more positive due to lower oil prices. This morning, the US 500 is testing 6800, the US Tech 100 is at 25,000, GER 49 is at 23,840, and the Japan 225 is at 55,000. Volume on US exchanges was 19.90 billion shares, compared with the 20.10 billion average.

While Iran threatens ships in the Straight, the US are focusing their military efforts on the Iranian navy and said they had destroyed 16 mine-laying ships

Oracle surged 10% after hours, exceeding expectations with an 84% infrastructure revenue increase, driven by strong AI demand.

VW announced plans to cut personnel in Germany by 50,000 people by 2030.

Oil prices fell after the IEA’s proposal for a record oil reserve release, surpassing the 182 million barrels released in 2022 due to the Ukraine crisis. US and Brent front-month crude futures settled down over 11%.

Ten-year yields are still at 4.14%, the USD Index is 98.70, EURUSD is 1.1640, GBPUSD is 1.3450, USDJPY is 158, Gold is 5190, and Silver is 88.

Today, we expect the German and US CPI at 8:00 AM and 1:30 PM respectively; these are mainly relevant as starting points to see where we go into the oil shock.

We are currently in a headline-driven market; expect sharp moves at any point in time. The swings in many assets are substantial, even if the day-to-day changes seem small—the intraday swings are significant.

Ruben is looking into the question of whether EVs are a good investment with higher oil prices: Petrol shock, electric dreams: why the Iran war helps EV logic but not every EV stock.

https://www.home.saxo/en-ch/content/articles/equities/eviran-10032026

The Saxo Market call analyses if a TACO move works after the shooting has already started?

https://www.home.saxo/en-ch/content/articles/podcast/smc-podcast-10-march-10032026

Wednesday, March 11, 2026
Germany Inflation., US CPI.

Thursday, March 12, 2026
Initial Jobless Claims, International Trade, Fed issues quarterly accounts

Earnings. Dicks, Dollar General, Adobe, Wheaton

Friday, March 13, 2026
UK GDP, France CPI, US PCE