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Morning Brew September 8 2026
Summary: Waiting for Friday - Not for the weekend
Good morning.
Markets are mixed this morning. Middle East tensions remain the main risk, while stronger-than-expected Chinese trade data provide some support. The yen is surging, gold and silver are firm, oil is higher and equity indices are broadly sideways. Bitcoin is little changed.
Attention is firmly on Friday’s U.S. CPI report, while hopes of progress with Iran still look premature. Trade friction between the U.S. and Canada is also back in focus as reciprocal Canadian tariffs take effect. On Thursday, the ECB is widely expected to raise rates, with markets assigning a 99.7% probability to a hike. Euro-area inflation remains at 3.3%, well above the ECB’s 2% target.
China’s trade data were stronger than expected. Export growth accelerated in August, supported by robust overseas demand for high-tech and AI-related products. The figures provide important support for an economy still weighed down by weak domestic demand.
The contrast between resilient exports and subdued activity at home underlines Beijing’s continued reliance on foreign demand. Policymakers are still struggling to revive consumption and investment while targeting economic growth of 4.5%–5% this year.
Exports rose 25% year-on-year in U.S. dollar terms, matching forecasts and accelerating from 23.9% in July. Imports increased 28.2%, up from 27.5% in the previous month but slightly below the 30% forecast.
Middle East risks remain elevated. Iran threatened the United States with “economic warfare” and said it had fired an advanced missile at U.S. warships. The rhetoric underlines the risk of further escalation only days after both sides exchanged fresh strikes.
Ole took a closer look at energy prices:
Look beyond Brent to see the true scale of the energy squeeze
- Sub-USD 100 Brent masks deeper energy stress, with diesel, jet fuel and European gas trading at substantial premiums.
- Refining capacity is the critical weak link, as Gulf and Russian disruptions combine with restrained Chinese fuel exports.
- Gas is amplifying the inflation shock, with disrupted Qatari LNG supply tightening markets just as Europe and Asia head towards winter. Germany is approaching winter with historically low levels of gas in storage.
- A renewed crude rally is the key escalation risk, potentially adding another inflationary layer to already elevated transport, industrial and household energy costs.
Equities remain mixed. European stocks were subdued on Monday, with the Stoxx 600 finishing broadly unchanged after reversing an earlier decline. Energy outperformed as oil prices rose, while real estate and insurance lagged. Novartis fell after a heart drug failed a late-stage clinical study, while Nordex surged following an upgrade. German political risk also weighed after the AfD’s strong state-election result, pushing Bund yields slightly higher.
Asian equities rallied strongly, led by semiconductors after Friday’s U.S. gains and renewed optimism around AI. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.9%, its best day in a month. South Korea’s Kospi surged 4.6%, Japan’s Nikkei gained 2.1%, and Taiwan’s Taiex approached record highs.
FX and commodities are moving more decisively. The Japanese yen strengthened beyond 154 per dollar to around 153.50, its strongest level since February, as carry trades were unwound and short positions covered. Expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike have risen sharply, with markets now assigning an 80% probability to a September move. The strongest wage growth since 1997 is reinforcing the case for tighter policy. The USD Index is down to 98.80, EUR/USD trades near 1.1625, GBP/USD around 1.3535 and EUR/CHF near 0.9410.
The Korean won also advanced by almost 1% to 1,337.70 per dollar, its strongest level since October 2024, supported by the equity rally and strong foreign inflows. The Reserve Bank of India reportedly sold at least USD 8 billion last week to support the rupee.
Gold is trading near 4,435 and silver around 67. Copper reached a record on the London Metal Exchange, with three-month futures briefly rising to USD 14,533 per tonne on expectations that the U.S. may expand tariffs to refined metal.
Today’s calendar: Japan’s final second-quarter GDP and China’s trade data are the main releases.
Wednesday, 9 September 2026
Macro: China CPI and PPI.
Central banks / speakers: No major central-bank decision scheduled.
Corporate earnings: No major global large-cap focus.
Thursday, 10 September 2026
Macro: Germany final CPI; U.S. PPI and initial jobless claims.
Central banks / speakers: ECB rate decision and press conference.
Corporate earnings: Oracle.
Friday, 11 September 2026
Macro: UK GDP; U.S. CPI; preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment.
Central banks / speakers: No major central-bank decision scheduled.
Corporate earnings: No major global large-cap focus.