Morning Brew September 26 2025

Good Morning,

oday's update will be the last from my side for three weeks, and it is a significant day.

President Donald Trump announced new tariffs on a broad range of imported goods, including 100% duties on branded drugs and 25% tariffs on heavy-duty trucks, effective October 1st. Asian pharmaceutical stocks slumped, and European pharmaceutical stocks are likely to face pressure today until the details are clarified.

At 14:30, we expect the release of the PCE Deflator, the Fed's key inflation gauge. The benchmark is 2.7% and 2.9% for the core.

Stellar US data on GDP and durable goods orders have raised questions about the Fed's path to lowering interest rates, bringing ten-year yields to nearly 4.2%. US indexes have lost ground for the third day in a row: the Dow is down 0.4%, the S&P 500 is down 0.5%, and the Nasdaq is down 0.5%. In single stocks, Intel remains volatile, rising nearly 9% yesterday amid talks of participation from TSMC. European stocks fell sharply on Thursday, mirroring global declines due to concerns over higher rates and new US trade barriers, with the STOXX 600 sliding 0.7%.

The USD gained across the board except against precious metals, which saw gains yesterday. Silver broke above $45 before falling back to $44.77, Gold is at $3745, and Platinum at$3745,andPlatinumat1545. The EUR/USD is at 1.1680, GBP/USD at 1.3350, and USD/JPY at 149.70. The Swiss National Bank held its policy rate at 0.0% in Q3 and is ready to intervene in FX markets if necessary, with inflation forecasts unchanged.

Brace for strong market movements today due to the new tariffs and their fallout, the US Inflation data, and month- and quarter-end adjustments. We are also approaching the next budget ceiling in the US on October 1st, which needs resolution and is a cause for concern.

Please follow updates from our strategy team on Saxo Trader to stay informed during this period, especially during the earnings season.

Trade safely and profitably.

Friday September 26

• US PCE Deflator
• Canada GDP
• University of Michigan Consumer Conficdence
• Speakers: Baqrkin
• Erik goes on Holiday

Sep 30 Tue UK GDP, Swiss KOF, DE Unemployment Consumer confidence.

Oct 1 Wed: International PMI, EU inflation

Oct 2 Thu: Eurozone - Unemployment Rate

Oct 2 Thu: US - Initial Jobless Claims

Oct 3 Fri: International PMI US - Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate, Canada - Employment Data

Oct 7 Tue: Canada - Ivey PMI, IUS International Trade

Oct 8 Wed: Germany, Industrial Production (Germany

Oct 9 Thu: US - Initial Jobless Claims, Wholesale Inventories

Oct 10 Fri: Canada - Unemployment Rate, US University of Michigan

Oct 13 Mon: Japan - PPI

Oct 14 Tue: Germany, - ZEW, Inflation, UK Employment data

Oct 15 Wed: China CPI, PPI, US - CPI

Oct 16 Thu: UK GDP Eurozone  Trade Balance (Eurozone), Philly Fed, Initial Claims, Retail Sales

Oct 17 Fri: Eurozone Inflation, US Industrial Production,

Oct 20 Mon: China Rate Decision

Oct 21 Tue: Canada - CPI

Oct 22 Wed: UK - CPI

Oct 23 Thu: US - Initial Claims, Home Sales

Oct 24 Fri: UK - Retail Sales

Oct 24 Fri: Japan CPI, UK Retail Sales, International PMI, Eurozone - Markit Manufacturing PMI

Oct 27 Mon: Germany Ifo Index, US Durable Goods orders,

Oct 28 Tue: US - Consumer Confidence

Oct 29 Wed: Australia CPI US & Canada Rate Decision

Oct 30 Thu: Eurozone GDP, Unemployment, Rate Decision US GDP,

Oct 30 Thu: Canada, Germany - GDP (Canada, m/m), Unemployment (Germany)

Oct 31 Fri: Japan CPI