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Morning Brew September 21 2026
Summary: Oil has overtaken central-bank rates as key focus
Good morning.
Oil has overtaken central-bank rates as key focus
Oil prices fell to their lowest level in more than a week on Monday as traders hoped this week’s UN General Assembly could open a diplomatic path in the Iran war. A partial recovery in Saudi shipments also eased immediate supply concerns, although attacks by Yemen’s Houthis continue.
Brent crude fell 2.1% to USD 101.71 per barrel, while WTI lost 2.1% to USD 98.15, with both benchmarks touching their lowest levels since 10 September. China has reportedly asked Iran to help restrain the Houthis following an appeal from Saudi Arabia.
Central banks
Central banks are tightening policy to contain inflation amplified by the Iran war. The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, a 31-year high, following the Federal Reserve’s increase, while the Bank of England was the outlier and kept rates at 3.75% but warned that further tightening may be required.
The Swiss National Bank decides on Thursday. Markets assign roughly a 94% probability to no change, with the policy rate expected to remain at 0%. Around 75 basis points of tightening are expected until the End of 2027
Equities
Wall Street finished mixed on Friday. The Dow fell 0.18% to 51,682.64, while the S&P 500 rose 0.17% to 7,650.50 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.40% to 26,522.55. For the week, the S&P 500 slipped 0.1%, the Dow lost 1.7%—its worst week since March—and the Nasdaq added 0.7%.
Berkshire Hathaway announced that Warren Buffett will step aside as chairman and become chairman emeritus, nine months after handing the chief executive role to Greg Abel. The shares edged lower.
Xenon Pharmaceuticals fell 30.7% after temporarily pausing enrolment in clinical studies of its experimental treatment for major depressive disorder and bipolar depression.
Crypto-linked shares rallied as Bitcoin jumped 5.9%. Coinbase, Strategy and Robinhood gained between 9.1% and 16.4%. Trading volume reached 25.29 billion shares, well above the 20-session average of 16.19 billion.
Crypto
Bitcoin is trading above USD 81,000 and Ethereum near USD 2,670. Over the past 90 days, Bitcoin has risen around 30% and Ethereum roughly 57%.
German politics
The AfD won 38.2% in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, ahead of the SPD at 35.5%. Chancellor Friedrich Merz called the result a “disaster” but said he would remain in office and continue his reform agenda. His CDU fell to 4.9%, below the threshold required to enter the state parliament—the party’s worst result in its 81-year history. Measures intended to lower fuel prices from October were not enough to change the outcome. The DAX is nevertheless taking the result in stride and is around 0.5% above Friday’s level.
FX and commodities
EUR/USD is at 1.1485, GBP/USD at 1.3395 and USD/JPY at 157.10. Gold is trading around USD 4,350 and silver near USD 66.20. Ahead of Thursday’s SNB decision, USD/CHF is at 0.8230 and EUR/CHF at 0.9445.
This week’s focus
Politics is likely to matter more than scheduled economic data this week. The UN General Assembly’s high-level week begins in New York, bringing together nearly 130 heads of state and government. Donald Trump will address the General Assembly on Tuesday morning and is expected to meet British Prime Minister Andy Burnham, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
Thursday’s reported Trump–Xi meeting will also be closely watched. Expectations are muted, but investors hope China can support efforts to restart negotiations with Iran.
Comments from New York—and any sign of progress or escalation in the Middle East—are likely to drive oil, inflation expectations and broader risk appetite.
Monday, 21 September 2026
Macro: European producer prices, unemployment and current-account releases.
Politics: UN General Assembly high-level week begins in New York.
Tuesday, 22 September 2026
Macro: UK public-sector finances; Swiss Q2 current account; euro-area preliminary consumer confidence.
Politics: Trump addresses the UN General Assembly and is expected to hold bilateral meetings with Burnham, Takaichi and Zelenskiy.
Wednesday, 23 September 2026
Macro: Flash manufacturing, services and composite PMIs for France, Germany, the euro area and the UK; France final Q2 GDP; U.S. flash PMIs.
Thursday, 24 September 2026
Macro: Germany Ifo business climate; France business confidence; U.S. initial jobless claims and new home sales.
Central banks: Swiss National Bank rate decision.
Politics: Reported Trump–Xi meeting.
Friday, 25 September 2026
Macro: Germany GfK consumer confidence; France consumer confidence; Spain final Q2 GDP; euro-area M3 money supply and private-sector credit.