Morning Brew August 26 2026

Good morning.                

Today brings two key events: the U.S. inflation release at 14:30 CET and Nvidia earnings after the close.

The PCE Inflation rate is expected at 3.6%, with the core  seen at 3.3%. The number is one of the two key inputs for the Fed`s path, with markets this morning assigning roughly a 60% probability that the Fed leaves rates unchanged at the September meeting. One hike is still priced by year-end, while yields are slightly off their recent highs.

Nvidia is the other major focus. Analysts expect Q2 FY2027 revenue of around USD 92.2 billion, while LSEG’s accuracy-weighted SmartEstimate points to USD 93.0 billion, implying a potential upside surprise of roughly 0.9%.

For Nvidia, investors will focus on four areas.

First, Blackwell demand. The Blackwell AI platform remains the main growth driver, so investors will look for confirmation that demand remains very strong and that supply constraints are easing.

Second, data-centre revenue. Last quarter, Nvidia generated USD 75.2 billion from the data-centre business alone. Any sign that hyperscaler spending from Microsoft, Amazon, Google or Meta is slowing would be closely watched.

Third, guidance for FY2027. As usual, the outlook may matter more than the headline numbers. Investors want evidence that AI capex remains strong into 2027, while any indication that high financing rates are becoming a burden would likely be received cautiously.

Fourth, China. Nvidia had previously assumed essentially no data-centre compute revenue from China because of export restrictions. Any positive update here could therefore be an important upside factor.

Options markets are pricing a move of roughly 6% in either direction after the earnings release, equivalent to about USD 12 per share or roughly the market value of SAP.

There were also somewhat positive, although still intangible, headlines from the Middle East overnight. Iran said it had restarted talks with Oman on managing the Strait of Hormuz as it faces increased economic pressure from the United States.

Iran and Oman have been in on-and-off talks for weeks about traffic through the strategic waterway, which handled around one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments before the war began in February. Oil eased to around USD 86.60 on the news.

U.S. equities advanced yesterday as technology led the market higher and the decline in oil helped ease inflation concerns. The S&P 500 rose 0.3% to 7,677.28, the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.6%, and the Dow added 0.3% to 53,577.40. Nvidia rose 2.2%, ending its longest losing streak since 2022, while Moderna jumped 14.4%, the largest single-stock gain in the S&P 500. Crypto-linked names also outperformed, with Robinhood up 8% and Coinbase gaining 4%. Energy was the main laggard. After the close, Intuit fell around 10% after issuing full-year earnings and revenue guidance below consensus.

SpaceX also unveiled plans to build its largest rocket launch complex yet in southern Louisiana, a USD 100 billion project aimed at supporting the company’s Starship and AI satellite launch ambitions.

FX is calm and mixed. The USD Index is near 99, EUR/USD is around 1.1660, cable is at 1.3630, USD/JPY is near 159, and USD/CHF is around 0.8030. Gold is slightly lower at 4,640, silver is slightly higher at 69, and Bitcoin has moved back below USD 80,000.

The Bank of Japan is now seen as more likely to hike at its next meeting on 18 September, with market pricing near 70% after the impact of the recent joint intervention faded.

Unless there is a major surprise, today’s market direction should be shaped by the PCE release first and then by any indication from Nvidia after the close. The inflation data will also feed directly into expectations for what Kevin Warsh may say at Jackson Hole on Friday. The Durable goods orders will only get any attention if it is a real outlier. 

Wednesday, 26 August 2026

Macro: Australia CPI; U.S. durable goods orders; Q2 GDP; PCE inflation.
Central banks / speakers: No major central-bank decision scheduled.
Corporate earnings: Kohl’s, Nvidia, Salesforce, CrowdStrike, HP.

Thursday, 27 August 2026
Macro: U.S. initial jobless claims.
Central banks / speakers: Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium begins.
Corporate earnings: Best Buy, TD Bank, Dollar Tree, Workday.

Friday, 28 August 2026
Macro: KOF indicator, EU consumer confidence, France CPI.
Central banks / speakers: Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium continues; Kevin Warsh’s speech will be closely watched.