Morning Brew August 13 2024

Good morning,

Yesterday was a bit of a mixed bag with Indexes calm, the S&P 500’ closed only 0.23 points up, the Nasdaq rose 0.2% aided by Nvidia and the Dow lost 0.35%. Nvidia gained 4% to close at 1.09. Toady the earnings of Home Depot will kick off the US Retail Data collection this week, Tomorrow we are expecting UBS earnings.

 Oil rose 4.2% to $80.06 and Brent crude oil rose by 3.3% pulling Gold and Silver higher as well, driver was a rather moderate outlook of Opec on declining Oil demand. Traders had expected a lower outlook due to slow Chinese demand. In addition, tension  in the middle east is boosting prices. This morning, we are seeing a little reversion again.

Kim wrote on Gold, Silver and copper yesterday:

• Gold seems to be resuming its bullish trend after a sideways correction and could push to 2,500 and higher
• Silver has formed a bottom and reversal pattern, with rebound potential to 29
• Copper's downtrend seems to have exhausted. A rebound to 422, possibly 440, is in the cards

The live interview of Elon Musk and Donald Trump brought no significant input yesterday, it was the usual Trump.

The rate-outlook is now at 50/50 between a 50 and a 25 Basis point cut, the upcoming CPI and PPI will be important.

Yields and FX were mostly calm, this morning the GBP got a decent boost from the much lower UK Unemployment, it came at 4.2% vs 4.5% expected Cable is testing the 1.28 EURUSD is 1.0940, USDJPY 147.66 and EURGBP 0.8550. Gold is 24460 and Silver 27.65.

Today we are entering the data heavy part of the week with UM labor data, German and EU ZEW, US PPI Manufacturing and earnings. The German ZEW is expected at 32 for sentiment and -75 current conditions, the PPI is expected at 2.7%. 

The Middle East and Ukraine remain in focus, we are either in the quiet before the storm or in a cooling off phase.

Tuesday

- Data Corporate Goods Prices, UK Unemployment, DE  ZEW, US PPI Manufacturing
- Earnings: Foxconn, CSL, Home Depot, Sea

Speakers: Bostic
Wednesday
- Data Australia Rate decision, SE, UK, FR& US CPI, EU GDP
- Earnings: Tencent, PetroChina, CCB, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, China Shenhua Energy, China Life Insurance, Meituan, Hapag-Lloyd, UBS Group, Cisco Systems, E.ON

Speakers: Musalem, Harker

Thursday
- Data Japan GDP, China Retail Sales, UK GDP, US Retail Sales, Initial Jobless claims, Industrial Production
- Earnings: NU Holdings, Walmart Applied Materials, Alibaba, Deere, JD.Com
Friday
- Data Japan Tankan, UK Retail Sales, EU Trade Balance, US Housing starts

- Earnings:  Adyen