Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning,
Anything but boring
We had quite a day yesterday where initially the USD strength persisted and the USD index reached ne highs until we saw a strong surprise in US data. The GDP Advance showed a contraction at -1.4% vs the 1.1% increase analysts had predicted, Core PCE came at 5.2% vs 5.4% expected. This was seen as a dovish sign boosting shares and letting the USD take at least a breather. There has been no change in the clear expectation of a 50 bps hike next week, the probability is at 96.2% while 3.87% are for 75.
Further aided by a strong rise of Meta, indexes rose 3.4% for the Nasdaq and 2.5% for the S&P.
The USD Index hit a high of 103.93 yesterday, the highest since 2003 and is looking to have t he strongest Month in 10 years. We are currently trading at 103.25. EUR and GBP can both gain against the USD off the lows but the Euro has lost 7% against the USD since Russia invaded Ukraine and the pound will likely suffer the worst month since Brexit when it lost app 20%.
Precious Metals recover off yesterdays lows as well with Gold back at resistance at 1910 and Silver at 23.44. European Milling Wheat rose to 385 and UK Crude oil to 108.
Beijing closed more businesses and residential compounds on Friday and according to Reuters reports
Results after the bell were mixed, Apple reported stronger than expected results but warned of supply chain issues for the rest of the year and Amazon earned less than hoped on higher cost. Both shares lose in the after market, Amazon app 10% and Apple 2%. Intel warns of shortages in chips and expects Q2 to lag expectations, shares lost 5% after hours.
Elon Musk reports to have sold Tesla Shares worth app 4 bio.
We are expecting a load of Data today, key will be the German GDP at 10, EU at 11, EU HICP at 11, US Income data and Canadas GDP at 14:30 and Chicago PMI at 15:45 followed by the University of Michigan Sentiment at 16:00. It is Month end so expect some month end position adjustments.
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures:
HOK2, LBK2, RBK2, SBK2 will expire on 29th April at 15:00 GMT.
Expiring CFDs:
OILUKJUN22 will expire on 29th April at 15:00 GMT.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.