Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Can volatile AUD pairs find support or direction?
AUDUSD broke short term rising seems trend line and was hit with massive sell off. Now the pair seems to have found support at around 0.71. A correction up to around 0.72600 possibly touching 0.73.Down side sentiment remains, however, and selling pressure could resume before. Keep an eye on 0.7220 minor resistance.
Upper Bollinger band is starting to narrowing indicating AURUSD is in its finally stage of the (down)trend. However, if today’s low at 0.7075 is taken out a test of 0.70 is likely.
Weekly. It is a sign of weakness that AUDUSD couldn’t keep upside momentum after breaking medium term falling trend line. Now trading back below the trend line and hovering around 200 weekly Simple Moving Average the medium term up trend is cancelled.
Trading below declining 55 weekly SMA indicating underlying sentiment is bearish. A re-test of strong key support at 0.70 within a couple of weeks is not unlikely.
AUDJPY bouncing back above support around 90.80 after what seems to have been a false bear break. RSI rejected at 40 meaning despite divergence we could see higher levels in the pair. Expect some resistance at 0.618 retracement level at 93.72.
To reverse the likely new highs scenario a break below 90.40 is needed.
AUDGBP trying to break bullish above short term falling trend line in what is likely to be a correction. Uptrend to be resumed if the pair is breaking above 0.5720.
Below 0.5590 expect sell off to around 0.55
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.