Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Technical Update - S&P500 & Nasdaq100. Bottom and reversal pattern indicates short term rebound
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: US Equities ended Friday strongly forming a bottom and reversal pattern indicate a nice rebound to expected. Overall trend is still down , however.
Friday S&P 500 reached and tested 3,815 support as mentioned few weeks ago it was likely to do in May. Trading session ended on a strong note forming a Hammer candle (occurs in a down trend where lower shadow – or wick – is 2-3 times the height of the body with no or little upper shadow) which is bottom and reversal indicator. With divergence on RSI a rebound is likely that could take S&P500 towards 4,100 before selling pressure is likely to resume.
The overall trend on Weekly and Monthly is still down. 3,815 level is strong support. If a daily close below next strong support is around 3,500.
Weekly RSI is testing lower falling trend line in the falling channel and a short term rebound might not be enough for RSI to test upper falling trend line
Nasdaq 100 staying within the steep falling channel. However, divergence on RSI indicates we could see a rebound towards 13K which is the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of the falling channel. Nasdaq is likely to be rejected at or below 13K and selling pressure to resume.
On weekly Nasdaq 100 has closed below strong support at around 12,208 bouncing off 0.50 Fibonacci retracement. No strong support before around 11K.
VIX Index (“Fear Index”) . Despite the bearish moves in Equities VIX is still only slightly elevated showing a slightly rising trend. If VIX closes above 37.50 we are entering big fear levels.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...