Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
CAC40. The technical picture on the leading French Index CAC40 looks quite similar to DAX. https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/ta-dax-04042022
CAC40 seems to be rejected at the 0,764 Fibonacci retracement at around 6,836. Index is below 200 SMA and 0.618 retracement seems to offer some support at 6,630. If CAC closes below we are likely to see at test of support at around 6,421.
For CAC to resume uptrend a close above 6,835 is needed. However, there is still some strong overhead resistance.
RSI is still showing negative sentiment not being able to break above 60 threshold. RSI breaking below rising trendline could be an indication of selling pressure to resume
AEX Amsterdam Index got rejected at the 735 key resistance. If the main Amsterdam Index drops below 718 strong support at around 700 is likely to be tested.
If AEX takes out last weeks high at 740 755 resistance is likely to be tested.
However, RSI is still showing negative sentiment not being able to break above 60 threshold. RSI breaking below rising trendline could be an indication of selling pressure to resume on Dutch stocks.
BEL20 has outperformed most of all other European equities markets breaking above its 200 daily SMA (Simple Moving Average). -The Index seems to be trading in a rising channel, a bearish breakout of the channel could be first warning of a top and reversal scenario. The Bear Engulfing candle on the last trading of March indicates we could have seen a top. However, that that top and reversal candle will be cancelled out if BEL20 closes above at 4,159 or higher.
Swiss SMI Index ran out of steam last week a few points below of the strong resistance level at around 12,411 . This morning it seems like buyers will have another go at the resistance. If they succeed and SMI closes above more upside is likely. There is not much resistance before all-time highs at 12,997.
Support at around 12,069 is the one to keep an eye on. A close below could very well cause intensified selling pressure.
OMX C25 cap was rejected this morning at the 1,818 resistance level and 100 SMA. For further upside a daily close above 1,818 is needed.
If OMXC25 closes below the short term rising trend line support at 1,721 is likely to come under pressure. A close below February lows at 1,567 is likely to be tested.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.