Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: European Equities are opening lower Monday morning following huge sell offs in US Friday. Most Indices broken supports indicating lower levels are likely to be seen
DAX closed Friday below the minor support at 15,724 (15,722 on the GER40 CFD). Both Index and CFD/future is now trading below the 200 SMA.
Bollinger Bands are expanding and RSI is at the time of writing below 40 indicating more selling is likely. Next support is 15,100 and 14,804 (support level at around 15,044 on the GER40 CFD).
For the current bearish picture to be neutralized a close above 15,913 is needed
DAX weekly
14,816 is the medium to longer term crucial support. A close below that support there is not strong support before around 13K. Minor support around 14,025
OMX C25 cap
Tug of war going on in the OMX C25 cap which closed below support at 1,800 but traders and investors are buying the dip trying to lift the Index back above the now resistance level.
The weekly close below support confirms down trend which can take the Index down to next support around 1,700. RSI still not in negative territory – now below 40- but down trend is confirm.
AEX Amsterdam
The weekly close below support confirms down trend which can take the Index down to next support around 1,700. RSI still not in negative territory – now below 40- but down trend is confirm.
BEL20
Similar picture on BEL 20. Support at around 4,094 is currently being tested. A daily close below is likely to fuel further selling. RSI is below 40 indicating negative sentiment
SMI has been in short term down trend for a couple of weeks after break out of Rising Wedge pattern. The Index is close to test strong support at around 12,145-12,071 (12,047 on the SWISS20 CFD). RSI is below 40 confirming the down trend.
A close below that support area is likely to fuel further selling towards October 2021 lows. For SMI to neutralize the down trend a daily close above 12,658 is needed.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.