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Talk of "melt-up" now competing with "bubble risk"
Podcast 24 minutes to read
Résumé: Today we look at the latest surge in US equities, led by key AI stocks while noting that talk of "melt-up" risk has become far more prevalent. We also note what types of developments in the market might suggest that the end of this incredible speculative run is getting closer. A few thoughts on the decline in the Japanese yen and what, if anything, can reverse it, more on private credit and misleading calm in junk bond yields, links of the day and more are also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
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Today’s Links
My FX Update from today running through the JPY bear logic and what, if anything, might reverse it. Michael Green with a pithy X post arguing that high yield spread indicators are misleading because, among other reasons as suggested in part in the comments, issuance has been low, so maturing debt still allocated to HY has fewer available bonds to chase around, while private credit is probably crowding out the space as well. The always worthy Stratechery weighs in on OpenAI’s bid to become the “Windows of AI”. The money quote: “OpenAI is creating the conditions such that it is the primary manifestation of the AI bubble, which ensures the company is the primary beneficiary of all of the speculative capital flooding into the space…” Lyn Alden was on Macrovoices podcast last week, apparently trying to answer the very apropos question What will stop this train?. Wouldn’t we all like to know? Hidden Forces podcast latest episode has dropped - another one I have in my backlog - talking the End of Neoliberalism. Lots of opinions on this “once in a century superstorm” and we can all see that it is happening, but feels like early days and highly uncertain how all of this shakes out. Certainly worth casting a wide net to keep an open mind. At the rate things are going, today could be the last day of silver prices under 50 dollar per ounce for a while as this incredible ramp in prices continues. The 2011 rally never saw this price (49.80 was intraday high and 48.44 was the highest daily close, which we have already broken) while the 1979 high daily close was just below 49.50, if my Bloomberg data is correct. Chart of the Day - Spot silver (XAGUSD)
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