MARKET REGIME: LOW-VOLATILITY BULL | VIX 16.50 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: NORMAL (126.41) | FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 17.85
- Record breadth. The S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 7,736.52 (+1.8%), a record, while the Dow gained 1.7% to a record 54,085.88 and the Nasdaq 100 jumped 3.3%, led by Palantir (+29.5%) and Caterpillar (+5.6%) on earnings beats.
- Vol rose with the record. VIX gained 4.0% to 16.50 even as equities printed fresh records, and VIX1D spiked 47% to 13.86 ahead of today’s ISM Services print and Friday’s jobs report.
- Post-close air pocket. AMD fell 8.8% and SpaceX dropped 7.5% after hours on guidance and cash-burn concerns, even as Asia’s chip complex extended its own rebound overnight, with SK Hynix up 6.9% and Samsung up 2.9%.
Vol surface data: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, as of 5 August 2026, approx. 06:00 CET. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Headline driver
Hopes for a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, alongside a run of strong earnings led by Palantir’s 29.5% surge, pushed the S&P 500 and Dow to fresh records on Tuesday, and the rally carried into Wednesday’s Asia session. Full macro rundown in Saxo’s Market Quick Take – Records extend on Hormuz hopes, 5 August 2026.
Market snapshot, Tuesday 4 August 2026 close
- US (Tuesday 4 August close): S&P 500 +1.8% to a record 7,736.52; Dow +1.7% to a record 54,085.88; Nasdaq 100 +3.3%. Palantir jumped 29.5% after raising its outlook and Caterpillar climbed 5.6% on resilient equipment demand. After the close, SpaceX fell 7.5% on cash-burn concerns and AMD dropped 8.8% after its third-quarter outlook missed elevated expectations.
- Europe: Stoxx 600 +0.7% to a record 656.86; DAX +0.8%; CAC 40 +0.6%; FTSE MIB +1.3% to a new high. ASML rose 3.7% as chip stocks rebounded.
- Asia: Rallying Wednesday – Kospi traded around 4% higher, Nikkei +3.5%, Taiex +3%. SK Hynix jumped 6.9%, Samsung Electronics gained 2.9%, Advantest rose 8.0% and TSMC added 3.0% in Taipei.
- Commodities and rates: Brent fell 5.3% to around $79, its lowest since 10 July, on Hormuz deal hopes; WTI slipped toward $74.50, a two-session decline past 10%. Gold rose 1.4% to around $4,135; copper broke above $14,000 a tonne, a two-month high. The US 10-year yield eased to 4.60%, near a two-week low.
- Volatility complex: VIX 16.50 (+4.0%), VIX1D 13.86 (+47.0%), VIX9D 15.04 (+13.3%), SKEW 126.41 (normal, down from Tuesday’s elevated 139.96), COR3M 9.64 (+6.2%), DSPX 42.68 (+1.2%), front-month VIX futures 17.85 in contango to the second month at 19.20.
- Market regime (rules based read): Low-volatility bull, VIX 16.50, 20-day realised vol 14.1% (falling), S&P 500 +3.42% above its 50-day moving average.
Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, 5 August 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Options flow sentiment
Based on end-of-day 4 August, yesterday’s positioning and not today’s price action.
- Single-name flow: Confirmed-opening call buying leaned bullish across the Magnificent Seven, concentrated in Alphabet’s October upside and near-dated Microsoft and Nvidia calls, while chip names carried a protection-shaped tilt, with an AMD collar ahead of earnings and paired SMH structures pointing to hedging rather than conviction.
- Sector and ETF flow: Index and broad-market flow read as defensive beneath a call-led headline split, with the largest confirmed prints sitting in long-dated SPX and SPY put protection stretching out to 2027 – a pattern that, in our assessment, may point to portfolio insurance being added beneath the rally rather than a change in view.
Volatility surface – 5 August 2026, approx. 06:00 CET
VIX term structure
- VIX spot 16.50 (+4.0%)
- VIX1D 13.86 (+47.0%) · VIX9D 15.04 (+13.3%)
- VIX3M 19.34 (+2.2%) · VIX6M 21.35 (+0.7%) · VIX1Y 22.89 (-0.04%), a term structure that stays in contango out to the one-year point even as the front end richened overnight
VIX futures
- Front-month VIX futures 17.85 (-1.1%), a premium to spot consistent with the contango shape
- Second-month VIX futures 19.20 (-0.3%), front-to-second ratio at 0.930
Skew and correlation
- CBOE SKEW 126.41 (-9.7%), back to a normal reading within the 100–120 neutral zone’s upper range, down from Tuesday’s elevated 139.96
- COR3M 9.64 (+6.2%)
- DSPX 42.68 (+1.2%), the S&P 500 dispersion index. Equity put/call ratio 0.61, index put/call 0.78
Cross-asset volatility
- OVX 53.45 (-6.6%), easing but still elevated alongside Brent’s 5.3% slide
- GVZ 23.50 (-0.6%) · VXSLV 47.44 (+2.7%) · MOVE 77.56 (-3.6%)
- VXN 25.48 (+2.9%) · RVX 20.37 (+1.4%) · VXD 15.02 (+8.0%) · VVIX 92.57 (+1.9%)
Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, 5 August 2026.
What the market is pricing
- In our view, the market may be adding event premium into the week’s end rather than letting it run off. SPXW options imply a 47-point (0.61%) move for today’s expiry, a figure derived from at-the-money option pricing rather than a forecast, widening to 96 points (1.23%) into Friday’s jobs report – up from the 79 points (1.04%) quoted for the same expiry in Tuesday’s edition. Pure time decay alone would have narrowed that figure to roughly 64 points as the window shortened from three sessions to two. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. See Saxo pricing for costs and applicable charges.
- In our assessment, the front end may be pricing today’s ISM Services print and this week’s data cluster rather than doubt about the rally itself. VIX1D jumped 47% overnight to 13.86 even as the S&P 500 closed at a fresh record, a sharp divergence from the rest of the curve, which stayed close to flat out to VIX1Y at 22.89.
- In our view, that easing may point to tail-hedge demand cooling from its recent peak. CBOE SKEW fell 9.7% to 126.41, moving from the elevated 139.96 flagged in Tuesday’s edition back to a more normal reading, even as the VIX curve stays in contango out to VIX1Y.
- In our assessment, that may be consistent with a dispersion-friendly tape rather than a market trading as a single basket. COR3M rose 6.2% to 9.64 but remains near multi-month lows, in a session where earnings winners such as Palantir and Caterpillar and after-hours laggards such as AMD and SpaceX moved on company-specific news rather than one macro factor. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Today’s catalysts
Data due today (times in CEST): US July ADP employment change at 14:15, US July ISM Services at 16:00, and the weekly DoE crude oil and product inventories report at 16:30. Earnings today include Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, Western Digital, SanDisk, Walt Disney, Shopify, Siemens Energy, Uber, AppLovin, MercadoLibre, DoorDash and Infineon Technologies, with Tuesday’s after-hours numbers from SpaceX and AMD still working through the tape.
Conclusion
In our assessment, Wednesday’s setup may favour structures that respect a market pricing calm into today’s own close while quietly loading premium into Friday’s jobs report, rather than a straight continuation bet on Tuesday’s record breadth. VIX rising alongside the S&P 500’s record close, and SKEW easing while the broader curve holds contango, both may point to a market hedging around the rally rather than dismissing it, and options carry a high risk of rapid loss that is not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.
