Morning Brew September 4 2025

Good Morning,

Yesterday was a good day for Tech as Google rose almost 10%, adding 240 billion USD in “value,” and Apple rose nearly 4%. Shares of Macy's jumped 20.7% after the company raised its annual forecasts. Figma fell 14.2% after reporting earnings that were below expectations, and Salesforce fell 5.6%.

As Boeing weighed on the Dow, it ended at -0.1%, the S&P 500 at +0.5%, and the Nasdaq at +1%. The GER40 stabilized and is trading at 23,610.

Decent demand in the JGB Auction caused stress and worry in global bond markets to recede. US 10-year yields fell to 4.21%, the UK to 4.75%, the EU to 2.73%, and Japan to 1.63%.

The USD Index holds stable at 989.18, with EUR/USD at 1.1660, GBP/USD at 1.3430, and USD/JPY at 148.20. Gold and silver are taking a breath after the surge higher and are at 3,540 and 40.88, respectively.

Ole Comments:  Gold breaks to record as investors seek alternatives in a fractured world

Gold hits a fresh record at USD 3,547, up 34% year-to-date; silver is up 41%. Fed cut expectations and governance concerns drive safe-haven demand. Rising long-end yields and a weak dollar erode bonds’ appeal, supporting gold. ETF inflows return after years of selling, adding depth to central-bank demand.

BYD has slashed its sales target for this year by as much as 16% to 4.6 million vehicles. A federal judge on Wednesday ruled that U.S. President Donald Trump's administration unlawfully terminated about $2.2 billion in grants.

We have a day with a lot of important US data ahead, but the real focus will be on the Nonfarm Payroll tomorrow and the resulting implications for the Fed on the 19th. Continue to expect nervous trading at these levels as traders await the employment data, and I expect a major impact from ETF inflows until the end of the week.

Thursday

• US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Initial Jobless Claims, Tade Balance
• Canada Trde Balance

Friday

• De Industrial Orders
• UK Retail Sales
• EU GDP
• US Nonfarm Payroll & Unemployment rate