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Morning Brew October 26 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Résumé: Risk Off Sentiment prevails ahead of key data
Good Morning
Severe volatility remains as traders are trying to digest yields, news and data.
Google was the huge mover yesterday, the stock lost 9.5% and weighed on indexes. The S&P500 closed below 4200 and the 4195 support. The Dow gave up 0.3%, the S&P500 1.4% and the Nasdaq 2.4%. Overnight, sentiment cannot recover and we are giving up further ground with the US500 at 4160, the US 30 32950 and the UStech100NAS at 14220. The GER 40 is trading at 14750.
As 10 Year Yields are back near the 5%, the USD Index recovers to 106.60. EURUSD falls to 1.0543, GBPUSD 1.2080 and USDJPY takes the crucial 150 level and can head to 152
Gold and Silver remain fairly strong at 1987 and 22.96, Bitcoin remains at 34600.
Headlines:
The U.S. House of Representatives has a new speaker in Mike Johnson, ending a power vacuum.
- Meta beat estimates and initially rose but closed the after hour session 3% below the close, the outlook was not optimistic enough in traders views.
- IBM Beat estimates.
- US new home sales surged 12.3% in September to 759k (prev. 676k), way above the expected 680k.
- The United Auto Workers union reached a tentative agreement with Ford Motors for a 25% wage hike over the 4-1/2-year contract, starting with an initial increase of 11%.
- VW reports strong sales but is not happy with the profitablily.
- Hyundai Motor's Q3 net profit rises 151%,
- In a mass shooting in Maine, 22 people have been killed.
Today we are expecting the Turkish and ECB Rate decisions as well as US Durable Goods orders and the GDP Advance. The ECB will likely not change rates (99%), the Durable Goods are expected at 1.7% and the GDP at 4.3%. The press conference of Mme Lagarde will be closely watched.
In politics, the Middle East remains in focus as Israel is starting ground attacks against Hamas and Putin warns the conflict may spread beyond the middle east. Chana`s Foreign Minister is visiting Washington .
Key Events this week:
Thursday
- Data Japan PPI, Turkey Rate decision, ECB Rate Decision, US Durable Goods and GDP Advance,
- Earnings UPS; Northrop Gruman, Merck, Amazon, Intel, Ford,
Friday
- Data US Core PCE, University of Michigan
- Earnings Exxon, Chevron,
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures
NGX3 will expire 26 Oct 2023 at 07:30 GMT
TTFMX3 will expire 27 Oct 2023 at 09:00 GMT
Expiring CFDs
GASOLINEUSNOV23 will expire 27 Oct 2023 at 15:00 GMT
HEATINGOILNOV23 will expire 27 Oct 2023 at 15:00 GMT
SOYBEANSNOV23 will expire 27 Oct 2023 at 15:00 GMT