Morning Brew November 8 2023
Senior Relationship Manager
Résumé: Oil weighs
Tomorrow, there will be no morning Brew due to an appointment – trade safely.
Oil was the mover of the day it fell app 4% on higher inventories and demand worries. Yields rise to 4.6% (10y) and the USD Index gains to 105.66while precious metals followed oil and equities remained optimistic.
The S&P500 gained 0.3%, the Dow 0.2% and the Nasdaq 0.9% in low volumes, only 10 bio shares were traded with a 20 day average of almost 11 billion.
Kim took a look at European Indexes yesterday: AEX25 / NETH25 cfd, BEL20 / BELG20 cfd, CAC40 / FRA40 cfd and SMI20 / SWISS20 cfd rebound running out of steam and seem likely to resume downtrend
Peter took a look at earnings season so far: The big winner in the Q3 earnings season has been technology companies with Nasdaq 100 companies such as Amazon, Airbnb, MercadoLibre, Meta, and Alphabet significantly increasing their earnings compared to a year ago. Yesterday's move higher in the US 10- year yield might suggest that falling yields are not a one-way street lower. Adyen is facing its most critical test since going public as the Dutch payments company is hosting its Investor Day updating the market on its mid-term financial targets since the catastrophic first-half results in August.
EURUSD is at 1.0685, GBPUSD 1.2275USDJPY 150.70 Gold is 1965 and Silver 22.40 even as Analysts polled by Reuters see the US Dollar losing ground for the rest of the year and next. They see EURUSD at 1.11, GBPUSD at 1.27 and USD at 136.
UBS result was taken well by traders, the stock gained almost 2%
The 4.9% growth rate, was a "blowout" performance that calls for "a very close eye when we think about policy going forward, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said yesterday.
The commercial real estate market is worth watching with WeWork filing for bankruptcy protection and looking to rid itself of certain leases and in Europe the Benko empire is at the brink as well. Chinese authorities ask Ping An to take controlling stake in Country Garden, sources say - Reuters News
Israel remains in focus but is seems that a broader escalation is unlikely without further incidents.
The EIA is expecting that oil production is less than expected while demand is less so oil remains worth watching. At 16:30 the Agency releases data on Oil inventories,
With little on the economic agenda, earnings, oil and, the treasury Auction and most likely Jerome Powell`s appearance at 15:15 CET will be closely watched, over night we are expecting Chinese inflation data and tomorrow the Usual US Employment data and another speech by Jerome Powell.
Data DE HICP,
Earnings: Airbus, Munich Re, Softbank, Walt Disney, ARM, Siemens Healthliner
Jerome Powell, John Willian, Lisa Cook, Michael Barr, and Philip Jefferson speak
Data: Japan Trade Balance, China CPI & PPI, US Initial Jobless claims.
Earnings: National Bank of Australia, Sony, Merck, Honda, AstrasZeneca, Brookfield, Deutsche Telecom,
Jerome Powell Raphael Bostic and Thomas Barkin speak
Data: UK GDP, Norway CPI,
Earnings: Allianz, Financiere Richement, Tokyo Electron
Lorie Loagan & Bostic speak
Physically Settled Futures
WZ3 will expire 08 Nov 2023 at 10:00 GMT
FPX3 will expire 09 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
GASOILUKNOV23 will expire 08 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT