Morning Brew March 7 2025

Good morning,

DJT amended his tariffs against Canada and Mexico yesterday, but markets failed to see this as a positive sign. It merely confirms the heedlessness of Trump`s trade policy. While there is controversy about the tariffs themselves, I have not heard any positive comments about the back and forth.

As new approach, United States is planning levy a docking charge for any ship that is part of a fleet that includes Chinese-built or Chinese-flagged vessels.

US Equities fell and after yesterday's 2.6% decline the NASDAQ is formally in correction, it is down a total of 10.4% from its record high, the S&P 500 is down almost 7% from its record and the Dow Jones over 5%, The S&P is trading at the 200 day moving average.

Tesla was named a bearish pick by Baird and shed 5% of it`s value, other automakers also traded under pressure, Chipmakers suffered by a disappointing outlook by Marvell Technologies, Nvidia lost nearly 5%, none of the Mag 7 closed green.

The GER40 is holding above the 23k, the Swiss 20 near 13k and the Stoxx 50 is also holding up well at 5470 due to the EU`s spending spree.

China's imports fell 8.4% against an expectation of a 1% rise, exports rose only 2.3% against an expectation of 5%.

26 EU leaders (ex Hungary) stress that there can be no negotiations on Ukraine without Ukraine at the table, and plan to continue to give it aid, Macron stated France was open to discussing extending the protection offered by its nuclear arsenal to its European partners.

The ECB brought little surprise, the current plans for common defence outweigh the rate decision in terms of significance.

The USD continues it`s decline as EURUSD remains at 1.0820, GBPUSD 1.2890 and USDJPY 147.60. The USD Index fell below 104 to 103.97. Gold and Silver are 2910 and 32.55, bitcoin found no inspiration by the executive order Trump signed yesterday to establish a national reserve including bitcoin, ether, XRP, solana and cardano as there seemed to be no plan to actually buy any crypto currency.

Today, the focus will be on the US labor data on the one hand and Jerome Powell is set to speak at lunchtime at the University of Chicago. Economists expect an unemployment rate of 4% and 160000 hirings.

Crypto could swing due to Crypro summit in the White House.

Politics, Defense and tariffs are a major cause for volatility, remain on edge for unexpected news, trade safely and profitably.

Friday, March 7, 2025

• China Trade
• DE Industrial Orders
• UK Houseprices
• EU GDP & Employment
• U.S.: Employment Report (Feb), Consumer Credit (Jan).

        •       Canada: Employment Report (Feb), Capacity Utilization (Q4).

Saturday, March 8, 2025

        •       China: National People’s Congress continues.

Monday, March 10, 2025

        •       Japan: Coincident Index Prelim (Jan), Leading Economic Index Prelim

        •       Germany: Balance of Trade (Jan), Exports MoM (Jan).

Tuesday, March 11, 2025

        •       No major global economic events reported.

Wednesday, March 12, 2025

        •       Japan GDP

Thursday, March 13, 2025

        •       Eurozone: Industrial Production MoM/YoY (Jan).

        •       U.S.: Producer Price Index (PPI) Final Demand (Feb).

Friday, March 14, 2025

        •       U.S.: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prelim (Mar).

        •       China: New Yuan Loans and Total Social Financing (Feb).