Morning Brew June 11 2025

Good morning,

Equities rose yesterday driven by positive sentiment from the US/China talks and ignoring the tensions in California. The S&P 500 gained 34 points, or 0.57%, to end at 6,040 points,  the Nasdaq Composite 125 points to 19,717 and the the Dow Jones 119 points to 42,881. The GER40 closed below 24k.

Tesla`s robotaxi is scheduled to launch June 22, the stock added more than 5% yesterday.  UBS traded lower yesterday on the suggested capital requirements.

Precious Metals remain strong, Gold is 3338, Platinum 1240 and Silver 36.50, 10 year yields in the US remain just below the 4.50, the USD index 99.10. EURUSD is at 1.1420, GBPUSD 1.34.85 and USDJPY 145.

Bitcoin is testing the 110k and Ethereum the 2800 - Will we see a breakout?

In the Headlines:

• Los Angeles imposes a downtown curfew and U.S. Marines arrived in the Los Angeles area as California's governor warned "democracy is under assault."
• U.S. and China agreed on a preliminary agreement on implementing the Geneva consensus,
• US. consumer prices likely increased moderately by 2.9% core after after 2.8% last month, the non-core 2.5% after 2.3% as gasoline became cheaper while the initial price increase from the tariffs are expected to kick in.
• The World Bank cut its global growth forecast for 2025 by 0.4% to 2.3%
• Trump intends to gradually eliminate the Federal Emergency Management Agency following the hurricane season.
• The European Commission suggested an 18th set of sanctions against Russia due to its invasion of Ukraine, targeting Moscow's energy income.
• General Motors announced on Tuesday its plan to invest approximately $4 billion over the next two years in three facilities located in Michigan, Kansas, and Tennessee.

The US CPI will likely be the key mover today unless there are significant news from elsewhere- give the  state of US Politics, this is entirely possible.

Trade safely.

Hardy’s Macro View: Rule #4 for the Trump 2.0 market era.

Summary:  In this final installment of our four-part series, we examine Rule #4 for navigating the Trump 2.0 era: we are entering an inflationary age. Unlike previous inflation episodes, this one is structural, rooted not just in policy choices but in the deeper rewiring of the global economy.

- Wednesday, June 11

  - Economic Events:

    - US Consumer Price Index (CPI, May)

    - US Treasury Statement (May)

    - 4-Week and 8-Week Bill Auctions[2][5]

  - Earnings Releases:

    - Oracle, Victoria`s Secret, Sailpoint

- Thursday, June 12

  - Economic Events:

    - US Producer Price Index (PPI, May)

    - Initial Jobless Claims (latest week)

    - 30-Year Bond Auction[5]

  - Earnings Releases:

    - Adobe,

- Friday, June 13

  - Economic Events:

- EU Trade Balance

    - US Housing Starts and Building Permits (May)

    - University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (preliminary)

    - Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (preliminary)