Morning Brew June 10 2025

Good morning,

Yesterday was a fairly dull day in stocks as precious metals once again took center stage.

The US 500 is above the 6000 mark at 6008, the US 30 at 42760 and the Tech 100 at 21800. German stocks gave up some ground on the holiday but hold the 24k, the GER40 is 24180.

Apple failed to inspire traders at it`s developer conference yesterday, the stock fell 1.25% and Robin Hood failed to make it into the s&p 500, shares lost 2%. UBS gained 3.8% after it challenges the new capital requirements.

US 10 year yields are just below 4.5% , the USD Index at 99.10. EURUSD is just above the 1.14, USDJPY 144.50 and GBPUSD 1.3540.

Bitcoin surged 10% in two sessions and is now at 109500

Platinum rose to above 1200 and is now up 38% year to date, Silver blew past the 36.00 and is currently at 36.50, up 26% for the year, the same as gold at 3318. The next resistance for Silver is 37.50, the 2012 high before we could not see anything significant in the 30`s the ascend may may be a little too steep and we should expect volatility at any point in time

Ole comments: WTI crude trades above USD 65, a level that has provided support and subsequent resistance several times since last September. Brent, meanwhile, has yet to challenge resistance around USD 68.50. Recent strength is supported by "fruitful" US-China trade talks, a tightening spot market amid peak seasonal demand, and a slump in US rigs drilling for crude to a four-year low.  

Key News:

• On Monday, the Trump administration deployed U.S. Marines to Los Angeles and increased raids targeting suspected undocumented immigrants. This action has sparked further outrage among street protesters and Democratic leaders, who have expressed concerns about a national crisis.

• Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has dismissed all 17 members of a panel of vaccine experts at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. He is currently working on appointing new members, which has sparked protests from many vaccine scientists, his department announced on Monday.
• Morgan Stanley is promoting a $5 billion package consisting of bonds and two loans for xAI, a company owned by billionaire Elon Musk. This is happening amidst a public disagreement between Musk, the world's richest man, and the U.S. president, according to sources familiar with the situation who spoke to Reuters.
• On Tuesday, top officials from the United States and China will continue trade discussions in London for a second day. They aim to reach an agreement on export controls for goods like rare earths, which have posed risks to the global supply chain and could slow economic growth.

The key economic event this week is the US CPI release but political events are likely to take center stage:

The Sino-US meeting in London is likely to make or break :As Charu points out:
 Optimism lingers as US-China talks continue, but the era of easy wins—tariff pauses and minor concessions—is over. What’s left are deeper, more entrenched challenges: tech restrictions, rare earth supply chains, student visas, and national security-linked concerns. These are strategic disputes, unlikely to be resolved in a few rounds of meetings.

The situation in California remains tense – Remember that California itself is the worlds 4^th largest economy.

Remain nimble and trade safely!!

- Tuesday, June 10

  - Economic Events:

    - UK Labor Data

- NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (May)

    - Redbook Retail Sales (YoY)

    - 52-Week Bill and 3-Year Note Auctions

    - EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change

  - Earnings Releases:

- Gamestop

- Wednesday, June 11

  - Economic Events:

    - US Consumer Price Index (CPI, May)

    - US Treasury Statement (May)

    - 4-Week and 8-Week Bill Auctions[2][5]

  - Earnings Releases:

    - Oracle, Victoria`s Secret, Sailpoint

- Thursday, June 12

  - Economic Events:

    - US Producer Price Index (PPI, May)

    - Initial Jobless Claims (latest week)

    - 30-Year Bond Auction[5]

  - Earnings Releases:

    - Adobe,

- Friday, June 13

  - Economic Events:

- EU Trade Balance

    - US Housing Starts and Building Permits (May)

    - University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (preliminary)

    - Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (preliminary)