Morning Brew January 8 2026

Good Morning

Politics continue to dominate markets and sentiment:

• U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to ban Wall Street firms from buying single‑family homes to ease housing prices, triggering notable declines in Blackstone, Apollo Global Management, and American Homes 4 Rent.
• The top U.S. diplomat said he will meet with Danish leaders next week but signaled no change in Trump’s ambition to take over Greenland.
• Trump also vowed to block defense contractors such as RTX from paying dividends or conducting buybacks until they accelerate weapons production. Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin each fell nearly 5%.
• The U.S. seized two Venezuela‑linked oil tankers in the Atlantic, including one sailing under the Russian flag.

Labour Market:
U.S. private‑sector payrolls grew by 41k in December 2025, rebounding from November’s 29k loss. Education/health care and leisure/hospitality led gains, while professional services, information, and manufacturing saw cuts. Pay growth held at 4.4% for job‑stayers and rose to 6.6% for job‑changers.

Markets:
The S&P 500 fell 0.34%, the Nasdaq rose 0.16%, and the Dow declined 0.94% as Trump’s policy signals weighed on blue‑chips. A rotation back into tech continued on the back of strong AI‑related sentiment: Samsung expects a three‑fold jump in Q4 operating profit, driven by tight memory supply and AI‑driven demand.

Defence:
Charu highlights that 2026 has already become multi‑theatre across the Americas, Europe, and Asia. When risks stack up, defence spending tends to become “must‑fund” even in tight budget environments.

• Europe is moving from reactive to structured, roadmap‑based defence planning.
• The U.S. is signaling larger ambitions alongside tougher delivery expectations.
• AI is reshaping the sector: investment is shifting toward drones, sensors, secure networks, and software—not just traditional platforms.
• Budgets may rise, but scrutiny and politics will influence the pace.

FX & Rates:
The USD strengthened as higher U.S. yields followed a strong ISM Services report. Despite weaker November job openings, attention is on Friday’s NFP report (expected 55k). The DXY rose to 98.706.
Yields were steady: U.S. 10‑year at 4.13%, EUR/USD 1.1680, GBP/USD 1.3450, USD/JPY 156.65.

Precious Metals:
Volatility remains extreme as prices pull back from all‑time highs and commodity‑index rebalancing drives flows. Following a standout 2025, gold and silver are seeing forced selling as index‑tracking funds rebalance away from outperformers. Goldman Sachs estimates:

• USD 5.5bn in gold selling
• USD 5bn in silver selling
  Silver’s estimated outflows equal about 10% of a typical day’s trading volume, enough to cause short‑term price swings. Platinum, not part of these indices, is unaffected by rebalance‑related selling.

This morning: Silver 75.70, Gold 4,421, Platinum 2,195.
Expect continued volatility as some traders view dips as buying opportunities while others grow cautious. Risk management remains essential—consider defining acceptable loss levels or using options for directional exposure and protection.

Gold, silver, futures, and ETFs all offer options with attractive spreads.

Crypto:
Bitcoin remains stuck near 90k, lacking momentum.

Ahead:
Beyond political developments, the next major catalyst is tomorrow’s Nonfarm Payrolls, expected at 60k, unemployment 4.5%, and average earnings 3.6%. China’s CPI and PPI will also be closely watched.

Today’s data of interest:$
German Industrial Orders

• UK House Prices
• Swedish CPI
• Swiss CPI
• EU Sentiment indicators
  Typically significant only if they deliver a  surprise.

Date      Country               Event

7-Jan     DE          Unemployment

7-Jan     EU          Inflation

8-Jan     DE          Industrial Orders

8-Jan     EU          Unemployment Rate

8-Jan     US          Initial Jobless claims, International Trade

9-Jan     China   PPI, CPI

9-Jan     US          Nonfarm Payrolls, University of Michigan

13-Jan  US          CPI

14-Jan  US          PPI, Existing Home Sales

14-Jan  China   Trade Data

15-Jan  UK          GDP

15-Jan  US          Initial Jobless Claims, Initial Jobless Claims

16-Jan  DE          Inflation

19-Jan  China Retail Sales, GDP, Urban Investment

19-Jan  CA          PMI

19-Jan  US          Market Holiday

20-Jan  China   Rate Decision

20-Jan  UK          Employment

20-Jan  DE          ZEW

21-Jan  UK          CPI

22-Jan  US          GDP

22-Jan  AU          CPI

23-Jan  Japan    Rate Deecision, CPI

23-Jan  UK          Retail Sales

23-Jan  US          PMI&University of Michigan

26-Jan  US          Durable Goods

27-Jan  US          Consumer Confidence

28-Jan  AU          CPI

28-Jan  Canada               Rate Decision

28-Jan  US          Rate Decision

29-Jan  US          PCE

30-Jan  Japan    CPI

30-Jan  Switzerland       KOF

30-Jan  EU          GDP, Consumer Confidence.