Morning Brew January 30 2026

Good morning,

I will be off next week, skiing in the beautiful Austrian Alps. Meanwhile, trade safely!

Yesterday, we observed a strong risk-off sentiment, largely due to concerns that AI investments may impact software companies negatively. There are also strong rumors that Kevin Walsh is the next Fed Chair.

Meta was a standout performer with a robust outlook, gaining nearly 10%. In contrast, Microsoft closed down by the same percentage. SAP dropped 16%, Salesforce ended down 6%, Tesla fell 3.5%, and Adobe slipped 2.6%. Palantir decreased to 151, down by 3.5%. IBM gained 5.1% and Caterpillar rose 3.4% on better-than-expected results. Trading volumes were enormous, with 23 billion shares exchanged. Lockheed Martin rallied 4%, and Southwest Airlines surged 18%.

Apple delivered solid results and ended the day higher, though the move was moderate, trading at 261 at 23:00 CET, compared to a close of 258.28.

This morning, the US500 is trading at 6925, the US Tech 100 at 25680, and the GER40 at 24420.

Precious metals are in a fierce battle for direction, driven by fear and greed rather than fundamentals. Silver is experiencing swings of approximately $3 per hour, while Gold is moving nearly $100. Currently, Gold is trading at 5180, Silver at 110, and Platinum at 2477. Copper had its best day in years, now trading at 608. Oil remains elevated due to the threat of US intervention in Iran.

The USD recovered from its lows to 96.50, while US 10-year yields are stable at 4.26%. Japanese long-term yields are off their highs, with the 30-year at 3.65 after a high of 3.87%. EUR/USD is at 1.1925, GBP/USD at 1.3750, and USD/JPY at 153.80. The Swiss Franc may lose ground against the USD, now trading at 0.7680, which is a relief for the SNB. Bitcoin continues to decline as the trading focus remains on precious metals. It seems the focus is shifting from one perceived hard asset to another.

Headlines:

Trump:

• He appears to have reached a deal to avert a government shutdown tomorrow if the House manages to vote today.
• Trump is likely to announce Kevin Walsh as the next Fed Chair. Walsh is considered a dove but also advocates for a smaller Fed balance sheet.
• Trump warned Britain about the dangers of doing business with Beijing.
• He is suing the IRS and the Treasury Department for $10 billion over the disclosure of his tax returns to the media in 2019.

Other:

• Tokyo's core consumer prices rose 2% year-on-year in January 2026.
• US manufactured goods orders increased 2.7% to $621.6 billion in November 2025.
• US initial jobless claims fell by 1,000 to 209,000.

Today is free of crucial data, with the focus likely to remain on precious metals, month-end moves, and adjustments. Traders of the SMI and CHF should watch the KoF at 9:00 CET expected at 103.

 Attention will also be on the announcement of the new Fed Chair and, of course, potential unexpected events. Next week will be driven by a substantial amount of data, earnings, and politics. We are also anticipating the next round of regular savings plan earnings, with AutoInvest scheduled to purchase on February 5.

Trade safely!

Friday, January 30:
Data: Tokyo CPI, Swiss KoF
Earnings: SoFi, American Express, Verizon, Chevron, ExxonMobil