QT_QuickTake

Market Quick Take - 8 July 2025

Macro 3 minutes to read
Saxo-Strats
Saxo Strategy Team

Market Quick Take – 8 July 2025


Q3-2025 Macro Outlook: Less chaos, and hopefully a bit more clarity


Market drivers and catalysts

  • Equities: Trump tariffs shake markets; Tesla tumbles; banks and German data lift EU stocks
  • Volatility: VIX jumps; short-dated vol signals near-term jitters; SPX move seen at ±0.51%
  • Digital assets: Bitcoin flat; strong ETF inflows continue; ETHA assets climb above $4.5B
  • Fixed Income: US Treasury yields climb on tariff threats and ahead of key auctions
  • Currencies: Aussie dollar jumps as RBA hold rates steady
  • Commodities: Crude shrugs off OPEC hike amid tight fundamentals; range-bound gold finds support on tariff risk
  • Macro events: US 3-year Note Auction

Macro data and headlines

  • President Donald Trump unveiled letters that threaten to impose a 25% tariff rate on key trading partners, including Japan and South Korea, with a deadline of at least 1 August. However, in usual TACO style, he said he was open to additional negotiations and that the deadline was "not 100% firm", indicating he would look favourably on countries offering concessions. Additional tariffs of 25%–40% were imposed on 14 countries, including South Africa and Thailand. Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated upcoming trade announcements before Wednesday's deadline.
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised the market by keeping interest rates unchanged at 3.85%, saying it was waiting for “a little more information to confirm that inflation remains on track to reach 2.5 per cent on a sustainable basis amid uncertainties about US tariff plans and their impact.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0600 – Germany May Trade Balance
0645 – France May Trade Balance
1700 – U.S. to Sell USD 58 billion 3-year Notes
1900 – US May Consumer Credit

Earnings events

Thursday: The Progressive Corporation, Fast Retailing, Cintas Corporation, Kongsberg, Delta Airlines

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.


Q3-2025 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally


Equities

  • US: US stocks dropped as Trump reignited tariff tensions, announcing new levies on 14 nations with rates up to 40%, set to begin August 1. The S&P 500 fell 0.79%, the Dow -0.94%, and the Nasdaq -0.91%, led by losses in consumer discretionary and tech. Tesla sank 6.8% after Elon Musk launched a political party, unnerving investors. While traders had hoped tariff risk was behind us, markets are reassessing the economic impact of escalating trade actions, particularly on companies like Apple, AMD, and Toyota.
  • Europe: European stocks were mixed Monday as gains in banks and upbeat German industrial data offset trade concerns. The DAX rose 1.2%, helped by Siemens Energy and Rheinmetall, while the CAC 40 added 0.35% as SocGen (+3.6%) and Safran (+2.0%) led gains. However, Shell (-1.6%) and Capgemini (-5.8%) dragged on sentiment. EU-US trade talks continue amid fears of blanket US tariffs. The Stoxx 600 finished 0.4% higher, but caution prevails heading into earnings season.
  • UK: The FTSE 100 dipped 0.2%, pressured by Shell (-2.85%) after a weak Q2 update and falling oil prices. BP also declined 2%. Broader uncertainty over Trump’s trade deadline weighed, as the UK seeks to avoid a 50% tariff on steel exports. Miners underperformed on lower copper and gold prices, despite Halifax housing data showing stabilisation. Investors remain focused on finalising a trade deal with the US before the August 1 tariff implementation.
  • Asia: Asian equities shrugged off tariff anxiety, buoyed by hopes Trump might remain open to negotiations. South Korea’s KOSPI jumped 1.77%, led by SK Hynix (+4.6%), while the Nikkei added 0.3%. Australia’s ASX 200 lagged (-0.2%) after the RBA left rates unchanged. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng bounced 0.6% following a three-day slide, with Xiaomi and Kuaishou gaining. China markets edged higher, while Malaysia and Indonesia underperformed on direct tariff risk.

Volatility

Volatility crept up Monday, with the VIX rising to 17.79 (+1.77%)—a clear, though not dramatic, uptick from last week’s levels near 16. Short-dated vol surged, with the VIX9D jumping 22.26%, reflecting near-term tariff unease. Still, ultra-short fear remains contained: the VIX1D fell nearly 20%. Traders seem alert, not panicked. Today’s SPX options imply an expected move of ±31.7 points (≈0.51%), suggesting investors are bracing for choppy sessions but not full-blown chaos.


Digital Assets

Bitcoin held steady around $108,015 (-0.24%) and Ethereum at $2,546 (+0.16%) despite rising macro tensions. Notably, BlackRock’s IBIT fell 1.27% to $61.40 but now commands $75B in AUM. ETHA slipped 1.18% to $19.26, though recorded a strong $52M inflow, pushing AUM above $4.5B. The data suggests institutions are using these ETFs to build long-term exposure, even during flat price days. Crypto-related stocks underperformed: MicroStrategy -2.06%, Marathon -5.1%, CleanSpark -7.5%.


Fixed Income

  • US Treasuries fell ahead of upcoming supply, starting today with the sale of 3-year Notes, Trump's trade letters, and the FOMC Minutes. US 2- and 10-year Notes trades near 2-week highs at 3.90% and 4.40% respectively, having risen by 10 and 20 basis points from their recent lows.
  • Japan’s super-long bonds extended their recent declines Tuesday, pushing the yield on 30-year securities toward a record high above 3% as political risks continue to cast a shadow over the nation’s financial markets.
  • Australia’s 10-year yield rose 9 basis points to near a one-month high at 4.27% on the no-change decision from the RBA

Commodities

  • Crude prices rallied strongly on Monday after traders concluded that current market conditions could absorb the bigger-than-expected OPEC+ production increase, with increased compliance from overproducers limiting the actual impact. Brent rose near USD 70, supported by surging gas oil futures amid a very tight diesel market, before suffering a mild setback on renewed tariff concerns.
  • Gold’s 12-week consolidation period continues after prices once again bounced from USD 3,300 support – ahead of another key level below at USD 3,245 - after Trump’s tariff threats helped offset the negative impact of a stronger dollar and rising bond yields.

Currencies

  • The AUD spiked higher, reaching 0.6558 overnight after the RBA surprised investors by keeping interest rates unchanged, thereby retracing most of Monday’s losses, for now leaving it stuck in a relatively tight range below 0.66 resistance.
  • The USD received a bid as Trump stepped up his tariff attack, only to soften again as the door was kept open for negotiations ahead of the new 1 August deadline. Overall, the BBG DXY trades up 0.4% on the week, with gains being led against JPY, as political and tariff uncertainty see USDJPY above 146 for a second day.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

Les informations contenues sur ce site web vous sont fournies par Saxo Bank (Suisse) SA («Saxo Bank») à des fins éducatives et informatives uniquement. Ces informations ne doivent pas être considérées comme une offre ou une recommandation d'effectuer une transaction ou de recourir à un service particulier, et leur contenu ne doit pas être interprété comme un conseil de toute autre nature, par exemple de nature fiscale ou juridique.

Les transactions sur titres comportent des risques. Les pertes peuvent dépasser les dépôts sur les produits de marge. Vous devez comprendre le fonctionnement de nos produits et les risques qui y sont associés. En outre, vous devriez évaluer si vous pouvez vous permettre de prendre un risque élevé de perdre votre argent.

Saxo Bank ne garantit pas l'exactitude, l'exhaustivité ou l'utilité des informations fournies et n'est pas responsable des erreurs, omissions, pertes ou dommages résultant de l'utilisation de ces informations.

Le contenu de ce site web représente du matériel de marketing et n'est pas le résultat d'une analyse ou d'une recherche financière. Il n'a donc pas été préparé conformément aux directives visant à promouvoir l'indépendance de la recherche financière/en investissement et n'est soumis à aucune interdiction de négociation avant la diffusion de la recherche financière/en investissement.

Saxo Bank (Suisse) SA
The Circle 38
CH-8058
Zürich-Flughafen
Suisse

Nous contacter

Select region

Suisse
Suisse

Le trading d’instruments financiers comporte des risques. Les pertes peuvent dépasser les dépôts sur les produits de marge. Vous devez comprendre comment fonctionnent nos produits et quels types de risques ils comportent. De plus, vous devez savoir si vous pouvez vous permettre de prendre un risque élevé de perdre votre argent. Pour vous aider à comprendre les risques impliqués, nous avons compilé une divulgation des risques ainsi qu'un ensemble de documents d'informations clés (Key Information Documents ou KID) qui décrivent les risques et opportunités associés à chaque produit. Les KID sont accessibles sur la plateforme de trading. Veuillez noter que le prospectus complet est disponible gratuitement auprès de Saxo Bank (Suisse) SA ou directement auprès de l'émetteur.

Ce site web est accessible dans le monde entier. Cependant, les informations sur le site web se réfèrent à Saxo Bank (Suisse) SA. Tous les clients traitent directement avec Saxo Bank (Suisse) SA. et tous les accords clients sont conclus avec Saxo Bank (Suisse) SA et sont donc soumis au droit suisse.

Le contenu de ce site web constitue du matériel de marketing et n'a été signalé ou transmis à aucune autorité réglementaire.

Si vous contactez Saxo Bank (Suisse) SA ou visitez ce site web, vous reconnaissez et acceptez que toutes les données que vous transmettez, recueillez ou enregistrez via ce site web, par téléphone ou par tout autre moyen de communication (par ex. e-mail), à Saxo Bank (Suisse) SA peuvent être transmises à d'autres sociétés ou tiers du groupe Saxo Bank en Suisse et à l'étranger et peuvent être enregistrées ou autrement traitées par eux ou Saxo Bank (Suisse) SA. Vous libérez Saxo Bank (Suisse) SA de ses obligations au titre du secret bancaire suisse et du secret des négociants en valeurs mobilières et, dans la mesure permise par la loi, des autres lois et obligations concernant la confidentialité dans le cadre des divulgations de données du client. Saxo Bank (Suisse) SA a pris des mesures techniques et organisationnelles de pointe pour protéger lesdites données contre tout traitement ou transmission non autorisés et appliquera des mesures de sécurité appropriées pour garantir une protection adéquate desdites données.

Apple, iPad et iPhone sont des marques déposées d'Apple Inc., enregistrées aux États-Unis et dans d'autres pays. App Store est une marque de service d'Apple Inc.