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Why are Bitcoin and Ether down so much: Crypto winter or liquidity reset?
Neil Wilson
Investor Content Strategist
Note: This is marketing material. This article is not investment advice, capital is at risk.
Key Points
- Bitcoin has fallen about 27% from its all-time high as the bear market deepens
- Pullback consistent with last two downturns but key support levels may be breached
- Ether is about 35% from its August 2025 high
Bitcoin’s drop below $100k and subsequent extension lower has seen the cryptocurrency wipe out all its gains for the year, and forced even some long-term bitcoin bulls to reassess this momentum-driven trade.
Bitcoin’s ascent this year has mirrored the wider picture for risk assets, with a steep fall in April preceding a rally to all-time highs above $126,000 in early October, before prices began to slide.
Tuesday’s $91k level was the lowest Bitcoin has printed since April and came as Bitcoin passed 19.95mn coins mined, or 95% of the 21mn fixed cap. It extended loss overnight to $89,500.
So far it looks like we may be at an important stage in the pull back as the ~27% decline is consistent with the ~28% declines seen in the two previous large-scale reversals in 2024 and earlier this year. Both times it took about 6 months from the cycle peak to make a fresh all-time high, which might suggest further choppiness to come over the next 3-4 months.
The next key support is around $83,500, the 38.2% retracement of the rally since 2022 to the recent peak. If we get some softness in equity markets on renewed AI worries, macro headwinds, Fed hawkishness we could see this move and even $70k tested before enough of a shakeout has cleared enough room for new entrants. On the upside, we look first to recapture the key $100k level before a move back to the previous cycle high around the $106k before bulls regain control.