Productivity, innovation and pricing power have never been more important Productivity, innovation and pricing power have never been more important Productivity, innovation and pricing power have never been more important

Productivity, innovation and pricing power have never been more important

Quarterly Outlook
PG
Peter Garnry

Head of Equity Strategy

Summary:  Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine equities were already under pressure from rising commodity prices and a worsening interest rate outlook.


Equity valuations are under siege

Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine equities were already under pressure from rising commodity prices and a worsening interest rate outlook. The war and subsequent severe sanctions against Russia have catapulted the world into an unpredictable and maximum uncertainty environment. When the future becomes more uncertain the precautionary principle dictates that the equity risk premium should go up, with equity valuations going down as a consequence.

Equity valuations are primarily driven by four factors: revenue growth, EBITA margin, incremental investment needs, and the discount rate on future cash flows. While the ongoing inflationary pressures might push up nominal revenue growth, the three other factors are all moving in the wrong direction.

Rising input costs for companies across raw materials, energy and wages are not only making operating margins more volatile; they will also compress margins—we have already observed this in the Q3 and Q4 earnings. As there has been underinvestment in our physical world for over a decade (the capital expenditures in the global energy and mining sector are historically low) and global supply chains will be reconfigured amid rising geopolitical tensions, incremental investments will likely move higher. Central banks have severely underestimated inflationary pressures as the world economy has exhausted the low-hanging benefits from globalisation and prior investments. The world economy has clearly hit physical limits and this is causing inflationary pressures. Central banks will have to reduce demand through tightening financial conditions which include higher interest rates and a higher discount rate on future cash flows. All of the above will lead to lower equity valuations. 

Despite the vector of all the most important factors for equity valuation pointing in a negative direction, as of February 2022 the MSCI World Index is still valued 0.9 standard deviations (equivalent to the 86th percentile on valuation) above its historical average since 1995. Given the outlook and opportunity set we believe equities should be valued closer to their historical average, reflecting the increased uncertainty and difficulties modelling growth and margins. This means an additional 10-15 percent downside in the MSCI World Index. 

It’s all about productivity and innovation

With a large-scale war back in Europe and commodity markets in upheaval, this has aggravated inflationary pressures and equities have entered an environment not seen since the 1970s. High inflation is essentially a tax on capital and raises the bar for return on capital, and thus inflation will filter out weaker and non-productive companies in a ruthless fashion. The days of low interest rates and excess capital keeping zombie companies alive longer than necessary are over. 

Reading Warren Buffett’s shareholder letters from the 1970s the key to survival is productivity, innovation or pricing power. The latter is often a function of productivity and innovation, and coincides with high market share—or just size in general—providing economics of scale. Over the past year we have frequently mentioned mega caps as a theme during inflation. The largest companies in the world are the last to get hit from tighter financial conditions, and they also have the pricing power to pass on inflation to their customers for a longer time than smaller companies.

Besides raw size as way to survive inflation and higher interest rates, companies that are productive will have a higher chance of survival. Productivity can be measured in many ways, but in order to have a uniform measure that can be used across all industries we have looked at adjusted net income to employees. This measure can be plotted against the number of employees and will show a negative relationship. This means that the larger a company gets the lower its profits per employee get. In order words, there are diminishing returns to size, which should not be a surprise. If a company is trying to maximise profits then that will often naturally lead to sacrificing productivity; but what is lost in productivity is gained through economies of scale in its operations, and this allows for higher levels of aggregated profits. Companies that lie way above the regression line (see plot) are those that have significantly higher profit per employee (productivity) relative to what their size would suggest. The most productive company in the world relative to what its size would dictate is Apple (orange dot). The companies that are way above the regression line are doing something right. In our productivity and innovation table below, we show the two best companies in each industry group that have the largest spread above the regression line.

Saxo's productivity and innovation list

Productivity

Name


Market cap
(USD mn.)
 Innovation

Name


Market cap
(USD mn.)
Apple Inc2,458,034 Amazon.com Inc1,443,622
Microsoft Corp2,072,434 Nestle SA349,014
Alphabet Inc1,670,339 L'Oreal SA201,736
NVIDIA Corp533,250 AT&T Inc163,501
Meta Platforms Inc507,996 Booking Holdings Inc81,773
UnitedHealth Group Inc459,084 Schlumberger NV58,711
Visa Inc433,615 Orsted AS52,330
Walmart Inc399,577 Synopsys Inc42,711
JPMorgan Chase & Co384,367 Dexcom Inc39,534
Procter & Gamble Co/The347,694 Cadence Design Systems Inc38,594
Home Depot Inc/The332,444 Ferrari NV35,469
Bank of America Corp332,272 Verbund AG35,130
Coca-Cola Co/The253,771 Experian PLC35,099
Costco Wholesale Corp233,114 Coinbase Global Inc33,622
Cisco Systems Inc/Delaware225,571 Electronic Arts Inc33,502
Verizon Communications Inc220,386 Deutsche Boerse AG32,236
Intel Corp180,797 eBay Inc30,604
McDonald's Corp168,184 Veeva Systems Inc26,261
AT&T Inc163,501 Las Vegas Sands Corp24,516
NextEra Energy Inc155,606 Beiersdorf AG23,696
Morgan Stanley150,912 CoStar Group Inc22,100
Honeywell International Inc125,642 Genmab A/S21,699
Lockheed Martin Corp119,692 Garmin Ltd21,083
Unilever PLC115,235 Kerry Group PLC18,875
Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The114,563 Novozymes A/S17,073
Rio Tinto PLC112,027 Incyte Corp15,977
Altria Group Inc91,844 Tenaris SA15,886
Booking Holdings Inc81,773 Continental AG14,070
Gilead Sciences Inc72,914 Hasbro Inc12,067
Cigna Corp72,600 Juniper Networks Inc10,745
AP Moller - Maersk A/S66,561 Elisa Oyj9,441
Moderna Inc60,481 Chr Hansen Holding A/S9,217
Hapag-Lloyd AG60,079 Synaptics Inc7,824
General Motors Co59,327 Lattice Semiconductor Corp7,024
Newmont Corp58,443 OSRAM Licht AG6,027
RELX PLC54,991 Leonardo SpA5,735
Bayerische Motoren Werke AG53,243 Ubisoft Entertainment SA5,271
Thomson Reuters Corp49,847 National Instruments Corp4,857
Aflac Inc39,538
Cheniere Energy Inc32,688
eBay Inc30,604
DR Horton Inc27,420
Lennar Corp24,011
Power Corp of Canada20,634
Chesapeake Energy Corp9,761
NRG Energy Inc9,369

Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group

* Companies in the productivity category are chosen as those two companies with the highest productivity (adjusted net income to employee) relative to their number of employees measured against all companies in North America and Europe.

** Companies in the innovation category are chose as the two companies in each industry group with the highest R&D in percentage of revenue. Some industry groups such as banks and insurance have been excluded because companies in those industries are not recognizing R&D.

There’s a vast amount of academic literature linking research and development (R&D) intensity to future equity returns; many studies have found a positive relationship regardless of the intensity measure used. In our analysis we have chosen to use R&D in percentage of revenue as a measure of R&D intensity and as with our productivity ranking, we have selected the two companies from each industry group with the highest R&D intensity; certain industry groups with no R&D such as banks and insurance have been excluded. The productivity and innovation list should not be viewed as an investment recommendation but as an objective list highlighting companies that score the highest on our chosen metrics for productivity and innovation. These measures are not guaranteed to lead to outperformance in the future.

Europe’s seismic shift in security policy

For decades to come February 24, 2022 will mark the pivotal moment when Europe’s post-WWII security policy changed as Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In each decade following WWII, European countries inside NATO had lowered their military spending as a percentage of GDP to the point that it reached only 1.2 percent in 2019, compared to the US at 3.7 percent in 2020. This significant discrepancy—despite the NATO agreement in 2006 to commit to a minimum 2 percent of GDP—was the culprit behind the attacks by former US President Trump on NATO and European countries for doing too little. Europe had long argued that they spent money in non-direct military areas that had a security purpose inside NATO, but there is nothing like a black swan event to reveal that the emperor has no clothes.

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine all countries in Europe have said that the continent has changed, and it is clear that they must step out from under the US military umbrella. Germany has declared that it will indefinitely increase military spending to above 2 percent of GDP, signalling a major security policy shift. The 27 countries in the European Union spent €168bn in 2019, and if military spending is increased to 2 percent of GDP by 2030—and assuming GDP trend growth—then spending will increase to €346bn in 2030, translating into 8.4 percent annualised growth. In the event that military spending is accelerated, which is quite likely, the growth rate will be double-digit in the coming years. As stated in Moretti et al 2021, expenditures for defence-related R&D represents by far the most important form of public subsidies for innovation and it causes spillover effects in privately funded R&D, resulting in overall productivity gains. While increased military spending is happening in Europe due to the horrific invasion in Ukraine, it could cause long-term economic growth and innovation in all of Europe.

As a result, we are positive on the defence industry as a theme and our defence theme basket represents 25 defence contractors in the US and Europe. These companies provide exposure to military spending and should be viewed as an inspirational list and not investment recommendation.

NameMkt Cap
(USD mn.)
Sales
growth (%)
EBIT
margin (%)
Diff to PT (%)5yr return
Raytheon Technologies Corp145,73313.87.79.666.3
Lockheed Martin Corp117,8012.513.60.688.2
Boeing Co/The105,7447.1-4.744.07.5
Airbus SE89,5054.510.241.254.9
Northrop Grumman Corp68,914-3.115.8-1.199.2
General Dynamics Corp65,0561.410.88.937.6
L3Harris Technologies Inc48,265-2.111.85.9144.3
TransDigm Group Inc34,7282.937.518.1220.4
BAE Systems PLC29,5231.311.5-0.637.4
Thales SA25,863-4.77.49.334.5
Howmet Aerospace Inc14,205-5.515.017.752.8
Dassault Aviation SA12,13032.07.48.721.3
Rolls-Royce Holdings PLC10,188-3.94.233.1-63.5
Elbit Systems Ltd9,34212.18.1-19.486.8
Rheinmetall AG7,3312.49.310.3132.0
Kongsberg Gruppen ASA6,5377.210.40.0235.3
Leonardo SpA5,7175.45.712.2-31.3
Saab AB5,05910.57.4-9.412.0
Ultra Electronics Holdings PLC2,9760.013.9-5.967.1
QinetiQ Group PLC2,3197.27.311.322.6
Babcock International Group PLC2,2360.2-38.311.8-57.8
Chemring Group PLC1,236-2.312.68.584.9
INVISIO AB68711.54.242.0110.5
Avon Protection PLC5150.7-11.712.444.6
Avio SpA281-17.71.135.0-3.5
Aggregate / median values811,8922.48.19.652.8

Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group

Explore equities at Saxo
Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-hk/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited
19th Floor
Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower
12 Queen’s Road Central
Hong Kong

Contact Saxo

Select region

Hong Kong S.A.R
Hong Kong S.A.R

Saxo Capital Markets HK is a company authorised and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in securities); Type 2 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Futures Contract); Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged foreign exchange trading); Type 4 Regulated Activity (Advising on securities) and Type 9 Regulated Activity (Asset Management) licenses (CE No. AVD061). Registered address: 19th Floor, Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower, 12 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong

By clicking on certain links on this site, you are aware and agree to leave the website of Saxo Capital Markets, proceed on to the linked site managed by Saxo Group and where you will be subject to the terms of that linked site.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

Please note that the information on this site and any product and services we offer are not targeted at investors residing in the United States and Japan, and are not intended for distribution to, or use by any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.