Podcast: Market action shreds the recent narrative
Saxo Market Call
Summary: Today we note that the action in yesterday's session seemed to largely shred the central bank pivot narrative, not only because of a robust US ISM Services survey for September, but also as the reaction function across markets, with still resilient equities as yields rose sharply again didn't fit the narrative. We also look at whether bonds are offering solid value here, particularly at the shorter end of the yield curve, discuss Shell's profit warnings yesterday as an interesting harbinger and look at important variables to watch if the Fed is ever to begin pivoting (plot spoiler: not soon). Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Listen to today’s podcast - slides are found via the link.
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Outrageous Predictions 2023: The War Economy
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Gold rockets to USD 3,000 as central banks fail on inflation mandateAs markets and central banks realise that the idea that inflation is transitory is wrong, and that prices will remain higher for longer, gold is sent through the roof, hitting a price tag of USD 3,000
EU Army forces EU down path to full unionWith continued challenges in the region and a US military that isn't aggressively enacting its former role as global policeman, the European Union agrees to create its own armed forces, bringing the whole region closer.
A country agrees to ban all meat production by 2030In an effort to become one of the global leaders on the path to net-zero emissions, one country decides to not only put a heavy tax on meat, but to ban domestic production entirely.
UK holds UnBrexit referendumFollowing a recession and domestic pressure, the United Kingdom is thrown into political turmoil that will end with a vote to wind back Brexit.
Widespread price controls are introduced to cap official inflationHistory tells us that with the war economy comes rationing and price controls. And this time is no different, as policymakers introduce strict price controls that lead to a range of unintended consequences.
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