Macro Dragon: Mental PnL... Macro Dragon: Mental PnL... Macro Dragon: Mental PnL...

Macro Dragon: Mental PnL...

Macro 2 minutes to read
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.


(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon: Mental PnL...

 

Top of Mind…

  • This may seem solely one geared for the traders, yet the Dragon Clan understand that the principles of compounding wealth successfully over time, are symmetrical to the principles of living a successful life
  • To most traders, there is only one pnl… and that’s the one where at the end of the day, they know whether they are up or down… determined by the tape & their exposure… the padawans’ mind sets their temperament to the pnl… they are attached to it… the masters’ mind is open to everything, yet attached to nothing… the pnl is not the obsession… the process is the obsession
  • Yet there is another subtle & way more important pnl measure… & that is mental pnl… this worth at least 10x… but more than likely 100x… let KVP postulate why
  • You mental pnl is akin to what state are you spending the vast majority of your time in… are you open, positive & objective in your reasoning… are you driven by the right long-term principles of compounding money… are you staying focused on the process & systems… are your levels of energy & intakes high & healthy… are you playing devils advocate on your best ideas & being unbreakable in your money management systems, etc…
  • Or are you tired… fatigued… just not feeling it?…  are you operating more on emotional swings between fear & greed…. Sizing too small on the trades that are working & too big on the ones that are not… or are you harvesting your wins to aggressively, while letting your losses turn from small scratches to loses of organs & limbs… is you portfolio all skewed to work out over the next wk, month, quarter, year?... how many of your positions are truly independent non-correlated expressions of riding the market?
  • A poor state of mind is part of the process… its important to be abreast of… because just as one should not be decoding a nuclear bomb after a stressful day at the office/home… one should not be making executive decision or running extensive risk or sometimes any risk… when in a poor state of mind
  • The one best thing about traders… that they hold over investors… is they don’t need to have anything on. Investors by definition are default long equities & bonds… traders may clear & turn their books several times a wk… let alone over the course of a year. One can always get back in…
  • There is a caveman-old school mindset (imho) of grinding day-out & day-in… almost a masochistic pride in it (your reading from someone who once did 90 straight days of +16hrs days in IBD & loving it… & yes, social life was like negative ten thousand… )… yet the truth of the matter is… this game is about volume over time… not intensity at the cost of volume. Part of training is not training… part of work is not working… and part of generating money consistently over time… is not generating money all the time… Even Casanova put up his feet now & then…
  • Pick your spots… cultivate a lifestyle & environment (including who is in your inner circle) to raise the delta of being more in the zone… than out of the zone..
  • So in review, one of the most important things you can do, is be aware, of you. Are you hot or are you cold. Are you in a peak beautiful state or a poor state of mind. Are good to go with those executive decisions, or perhaps some meditation & yoga are in order, before you sleep on it… etc…
  • So… the point is… when your on point - mentally, physically & spiritually… you can literally generate hundreds of millions of dollars in the space of a very short time… did KVP ever tell you about +68% return on AUM in 4hrs… we’ll save that war story for another time… that trader was definitely in a beautiful state
  • Just as you would protect your house & clan, protect your mental pnl… it is a lot more valuable that all the wealth you currently hold, as it is a window into what you choose to see & seek. Which is why…
  • What you seek, is seeking you… Everybody gets what they want out of the market…

-

On The Radar Today

  • CA: BoC today, which will be Poloz’s last before the new gov takes over. Likely to be similar to yest’s RBA – a wash, saving the tool belt for down the line.
  • AU: 1Q GDP -0.3%a -0.4%e +0.5%p, Building Approvals Smash it -1.8%a -10.7%e -4.0%p (guess Aussie has not been lying over the month of Apr)
  • CH: Caixin Serv. PMI +55.0a 47.4e 44.4p => that’s such a big beat, that KVP would be inclined to dig into the numbers… again remember Caixin Mfg. also beat on Mon 50.7a 49.6e 49.4p… this is not in-line with the general bearish rhetoric on China economic recovery
  • UK: Final Serv. PMI 27.9e 27.8p… again a wash, as its data from lockdown period, PMIs here not likely to count until mid to late 3Q…
  • EZ: Final Serv. PMI 28.7e/p… ditto to UK., PPI & U/R  [Don’t forget ECB tmr, surprise & risk would dbe if they did something & Euro reversed lower… low delta]
  • US: Final Serv. PMI 37.2e 36.9p… ditto to EZ/UK comment… ADP, Crude Oil inventories, ISM Non-mfg 44.2e 41.8p

-

Start-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision. Create Luck. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.


Namaste,

KVP

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article
Disclaimer

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-hk/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo or its affiliates.

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited
19th Floor
Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower
12 Queen’s Road Central
Hong Kong

Contact Saxo

Select region

Hong Kong S.A.R
Hong Kong S.A.R

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited (“Saxo”) is a company authorised and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Saxo holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Securities); Type 2 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Futures Contract); Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading); Type 4 Regulated Activity (Advising on Securities) and Type 9 Regulated Activity (Asset Management) licenses (CE No. AVD061). Registered address: 19th Floor, Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower, 12 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. Please click here to view the relevant risk disclosure statements.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-hk/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this site may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and services offered on this website are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity residing in the United States and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.