Macro Dragon: Trump, RBA, Powell, Lagarde... & count-down to Wed's VP Debate Macro Dragon: Trump, RBA, Powell, Lagarde... & count-down to Wed's VP Debate Macro Dragon: Trump, RBA, Powell, Lagarde... & count-down to Wed's VP Debate

Macro Dragon: Trump, RBA, Powell, Lagarde... & count-down to Wed's VP Debate

Macro 4 minutes to read
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.

(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon: Trump, RBA, Powell, Lagarde... + Wed's VP Debate


Top of Mind…

  • Touched on this wk in the Dragon’s New Month = New & Final Quarter = New POTUS piece

  • Worth noting that the key Final Service PMIs yest generally came in stronger than expected with final EZ in at 48.0a 47.6e/p (yet obviously in contraction territory being sub 50), UK 56.1a 55.1e, US 54.6a/e & US ISM Serv. PMI 57.8a 56.3e 56.9p (again US data still holding up!)

  • Today we got a few key things including RBA rate decision, as well as ECB’s Lagarde (@ 16:35 & @ 21:00 SGT) & Fed’s Powell (@ 22:40 SGT) set to speak at different events

  • Tomorrow will be all about the VP debate – naturally viewed as that much more pivotal, with Trumps’ health status likely to be in a state of Limbo until at least 2H of Oct

  • In regards to Trump’s tweet last Fri on having contracted Covid-19 – biggest likely change from the Dragon’s view is that the probability of fiscal deal prior to the election has gone up

  • By no means a done deal or even significantly above 50%, yet aesthetics of POTUS catching the virus are likely Net-Negative from the republican camp… its not going to be a Bojo sympathy theme. This could force the Republicans to be more open to getting to an agreement with the Democrats. Obviously one can argue if it really makes any difference, with votes already coming in… yet hard to see when US politics has been rational over the last few years

  • Its worth noting with Trump that we are likely not going to know just how bad a state he will be in, until midway this wk to end of the wk. If you recall Bojo was first at home, ordering curries & dropping jokes… then needed to be rushed to hospital.

  • Whilst the dominant press coverage on Trump is rarely net positive, its does seem pretty clear that the updates from the Doctors have been with a positive spin & a lot of questions are being dodged. It’s also worth noting Trump seems to be on steroids – which traditionally are only given to folks who are really in bad shape around covid – as well as a number of other prototype cocktail of drugs.

  • He is back in the White House, yet still under full care - & whilst his car drive publicity stunt has been criticized , clearly he was still well enough to do that. Again real MtM on his health is likely to be seen before mid Oct.

  • CNN Cut: Trump returns to White House and removes mask despite having Covid

  • Fox Cut: Trump discharged from Walter Reed, returns to White House

  • From what KVP can gather, the cleanest pathway in the scenario of Trump falling to Covid-19 or in someway being incapacitated is that Pence becomes the de facto face of the Republican Ballot. And it almost surely raises the delta of the Dragon’s contrarian (yet changing consensus view post the debate last wk), view that this is going to be a blue tsunami  

  • Either way – one thing that few people seem to be keeping in mind, is that no one is talking about upside risk. And on election night – despite ballots that will still need to be counted (our understanding is they have to wait for election night to open the mailed votes) –  we may have a scenario where it mathematically impossible for one candidate to catch up to another, due to the loss of a number of the key swing states

  • So pay special attention again to the likes of Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania & Minnesota

  • As always anything is possible… yet current feel is that most folks are on the side-lines, with a potential net-short bias on equities & folks worried about election uncertainty

  • That could change very quickly if we have a highly probable clear winner on/very close to election day – i.e. short-squeeze, to relief rally given uncertainty & big event-risk being cleared, as well as anticipation of a new administration getting the next fiscal bill in order  


Not Caught Enough of KVP?


Dragon's Must Reads

John Hardy dropping a roadmap US Election Primer: The Final Sprint to November 3rd

We sort through important dates in this final sprint phase of the absurdly long US presidential election cycle. Historically, we have seen significant shifts in the polling in the final weeks leading up to the election. As well, we consider factors that can change the odds between now and Election Day on November 3rd.

Saxo’s US Election Cheat Sheet Which cuts into the three potential pathways into the elections, probabilities around them, as well as short & long-term positions across equities, bonds, commodities & currencies.


Start-to-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity | Process > Outcome | Sizing > Idea

This is the way 



The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
- Full disclaimer (

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo or its affiliates.

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited
19th Floor
Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower
12 Queen’s Road Central
Hong Kong

Contact Saxo

Select region

Hong Kong S.A.R
Hong Kong S.A.R

Saxo Capital Markets HK is a company authorised and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in securities); Type 2 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Futures Contract); Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged foreign exchange trading); Type 4 Regulated Activity (Advising on securities) and Type 9 Regulated Activity (Asset Management) licenses (CE No. AVD061). Registered address: 19th Floor, Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower, 12 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong

By clicking on certain links on this site, you are aware and agree to leave the website of Saxo Capital Markets, proceed on to the linked site managed by Saxo Group and where you will be subject to the terms of that linked site.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

Please note that the information on this site and any product and services we offer are not targeted at investors residing in the United States and Japan, and are not intended for distribution to, or use by any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.