back
Details Cookies
Hong Kong S.A.R
Cookie policy

This website uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience by enabling, optimising and analysing site operations, as well as to provide personalised ad content and allow you to connect to social media. By choosing “Accept all” you consent to the use of cookies and the related processing of personal data. Select “Manage consent” to manage your consent preferences. You can change your preferences or retract your consent at any time via the cookie policy page. Please view our cookie policy here and our privacy policy here

Macro Dragon: Synthetic Fridays & Arbing Wkds... Macro Dragon: Synthetic Fridays & Arbing Wkds... Macro Dragon: Synthetic Fridays & Arbing Wkds...

Macro Dragon: Synthetic Fridays & Arbing Wkds...

Macro 2 minutes to read
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.


(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon: Synthetic Fridays & Arbing Wkds...

 

Top of Mind…

  • As some of you may know, we have elections here in Singapore tmr hence its going to be a public holiday. KVP will be arbing that over Mon, to catch up with loved ones (& maybe even some family members) plus some side projects. So we are likely not back with the Macro Dragon until Tuesday… everything else being equal
  • Macro… macro… macro… takes longer than you think & you almost drive yourself crazy talking about prime conviction theme…. Then next thing you know gold is above $1800… we have not even started to move in the precious metals complex yet imho… we will be get strings of back to back days, of the likes of gold popping by +$25 to +$50 a day
  • If you did not catch yesterday’s Saxo Market Call podcast that comes out in the European morning, please do so. Our equity strategist Peter Garnry held the fort & had a special guest talking about an interesting contingency Phase-One deal break scenario…
  • …which with USDCNH south of the pivotal 7.00 handle, as well as CH & HK equity names flying  - CH Airlines still lagging by the way, still down c. -30% YTD… whilst CSI-3000 up +14% YTD in-line with Nasdaq-100 - could make for an interesting risk-off tactical shorting to strategic buy-the-dip opportunity
  • A lot of folks out there are not clear on the regime we are in… if you don’t know what regime we are in… you need to stop right there & either figure that out first… or even better outsource it to someone that lives & breathes it every day - & trust KVP, its far from a walk in the park for them…
  • …or for the USD bulls… as the DXY at sub 96.50 (the c. 200WMA) is showing that the dollar bearish downside trend (Another Dragon Anthem) continues to be very much intact…
  • Speaking of far from a walk in the park, you will be shocked how few people really understand asset allocation (AA)… be they finance “professionals” like HF & AM managers, private bankers & wealth advisors, to family office & UHNW investors, to even value folks… KVP could do a book on this… but he will not… there are so many holes in people thinking…
  • Likely one of the biggest is approaching every investment opportunity with the same risk-reward framework… everyone is trying to optimize the highest return for the lowest risk. Afterall that’s what the text book says & intuitively it makes sense right?
  • Wrong!
  • Again context is everything… you have to think of AA from an overall wealth distribution basis, as well as the objectives & parameters of the tranches of those distributions.
  • Here is a simple question, KVP gives you $100m to invest as portfolio manager at his family office (Upside Capital), What is the best allocation below?

    1. 100% into Equities
    2. 100% into Bonds
    3. 65% Bonds, 35% Equities
    4. 20% Bonds, 20% Equities, 20% Gold, 20% Commodities, 20% Currencies
    5. 50% passive all weather portfolios, 50% Active HF Allocations
    6. 100% Bitcoin

       

  • If you chose 6, 4, 1, 3, 5 or 2 – you are wrong. Because you don’t have enough information to be an optimal manager for that capital
  • Perhaps the family office has $1bn in total AUM, with 90% of that being in Amazon, or Bitcoin, or Beyond Meat or Yeti or Tencent or in a long Gold position or short USDNOK position. Does the family have capital commitments that need to be funded out of the AUM, or is it capital infusions of +$25m a quarter?
  • You need context, as that gives you parameters & objectives to work under… otherwise you have already failed before you have begun. Or at best, are just massively under-performing from your true potential of consistently compounding wealth  
  • You cannot approach your bond allocation how you would approach you bitcoin allocation – yet people do this all the time… it used to drive KVP up the wall… no longer. This. Is. GOOD. 

 

-

 

To Keep In Mind Today

  • JP: Machinery Orders, Money Supply
  • NZ: ANZ Bis. Conf.
  • CH: CPI 2.5%e 2.4%p PPI -3.2%e -3.7%p
  • EZ: Euro-group Meetings, GER Trade Balance
  • US: Jobless Claims, Inventories, Natural Gas Storage, 30yr Auction  

-

Start-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.

This is the way 

KVP

Disclaimer

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-hk/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo or its affiliates.

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited
19th Floor
Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower
12 Queen’s Road Central
Hong Kong

Contact Saxo

Select region

Hong Kong S.A.R
Hong Kong S.A.R

Saxo Capital Markets HK is a company authorised and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in securities); Type 2 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Futures Contract); Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged foreign exchange trading); Type 4 Regulated Activity (Advising on securities) and Type 9 Regulated Activity (Asset Management) licenses (CE No. AVD061). Registered address: 19th Floor, Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower, 12 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong

By clicking on certain links on this site, you are aware and agree to leave the website of Saxo Capital Markets, proceed on to the linked site managed by Saxo Group and where you will be subject to the terms of that linked site.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

Please note that the information on this site and any product and services we offer are not targeted at investors residing in the United States and Japan, and are not intended for distribution to, or use by any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.