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Macro Dragon: Social Instability...

Macro 2 minutes to read

Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.

(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon: Social Instability...

Top of Mind…

  • Folks, in regards to our gold series KVP was half way through The Bulls’ repertoire to The bear… yet something has come up that requires KVP’s complete faculties + focus…  intuition so far?… is its BIG! So stay tuned… need to do some more calibrations…
  • Bull case for gold will come through over next few Dragons… yet as some of you already know our initial target is a big one… way north of the brilliant folks at ML, who upgraded their new target to $3,000 over 18m – kudos on them calling the move to $1700 right. Here was The Bear case yest: Macro Dragon: Dissecting Gold part I of III - The Bear…
  • A few must reads from the dream team SaxoStrats:
  • Mechanisms in the ETF market - and possible “surprises” Obviously with everything that has been going on in leveraged etfs & event unlevered etfs… be they in volatility, energy, transport or tourism… Peter Garnry (SaxoStrats’ Equity & Quant Strategist) & Anders Nysteen (SaxoStrats’ COO, CTO & Strat's Resident Propeller Head) put some great work here – comments as always welcome… there are a few ETF & Index specialists in the KVP circle... you know my thoughts on USO 
  • Lastly re-flagging the potential inflection point in the Eurozone & Europe, that our Chief Economist Christopher Dembik has been all over… like oil on storage… this should all go down tonight… are EURUSD, EURJPY, EURCHF & the Dax complacent… or rightly priced? EUCO Preview: Make it or break it
  • It worth noting the view & sentiment of the greater populous of Italy towards the euro-zone & the euro, is dramatically different today than say a 1yr ago where they have always been consistently pro-euro… the tides are shifting beneath the surface.  

 

  • Today…

  • ...Econ data wise this wk, its all about today… flash pmi Thu! & of course the jobless claims that no one seems to care about – at least equities – which is astonishing given that we probably get to around 25m jobs lost in just 5wks… remember during the GFC took us 2yrs to get to 10m jobs… same same but diff diff… yes a lot of these jobs will come back… but it will not be on the flick of a light switch & some of these jobs will never come back.
  • KVP continues to think the probability of social instability in the US is underpriced – granted it would have to happen in key parts of the country for the market’s to take notice … yet the situation is the US is vastly different from Europe whose government's actually care about the unemployed. The US is likely to learn (to its detriment), which this is going to be aspect to be abreast of... going forward 

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On The Radar Today…

Flash PMIs (Thu), when + how do we reopen (May-Aug) themed week 17

  • US: Flash mfg PMI, Flash Serv. PMI, New Homes Sales, Natural Gas Storage
  • EZ: Flash mfg. PMI 38.7a 44.5p, Flash Serv. PMI 23.2a 26.4p
  • JP: Flash mfg. PMI 43.7a 44.8p
  • UK: Flash mfg. PMI 42.0a 47.8p, Flash Serv. PMI 28.5a 34.5p, CBI Industrial Order Exp.
  • AU: Flash mfg. PMI 45.6a 49.7p, Flash Serv. PMI 19.6a 38.5p
  • NZ: Credit Card Spending 2.5%p
  • CA: CPI 1.75e 1.8%p, CORE 2.%5e 2.1%p

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Good luck to everyone out there, be nimble & position accordingly.  


Namaste,

KVP

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