Macro Dragon:  Question of When, Not If... Macro Dragon:  Question of When, Not If... Macro Dragon:  Question of When, Not If...

Macro Dragon: Question of When, Not If...

Macro 2 minutes to read
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.

(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon: Question of When, Not If...   


Top of Mind…

  • So we had the Fed o/n… & still not YCC - spot on call by our CIO Jakobsen on this by the way, KVP as you know when pushed for a binary skew, was on pathway all systems go…
  • Markets & media seem surprised that Fed has indicated that they will not hike even out to 2022…KVP could have told you that… yet it is often less about the message & more about the messenger. Again, this is fascinating but true. Its not about the actual content, but who is delivering the content… as well as a function of the environment in which that content, action, etc. occurs…
  • The paradox of Floyd’s death in the US, is if the entire world was not at home, frustrated, angry & irritated (at best) with the Covid-19 dynamics, the death of George Floyd would not even have made the front page. It would have just been one more poor black man killed whilst in police hands in the US – i.e. that’s how common an occurrence it has become. From a big picture perspective, everything really is connected & happens for a reason – and this class divergences (Of which race is unevenly distributed) are present in nearly all countries & cultures globally…   
  • With all that said so much of the headlines, “sound bites”, corporate /celebrity /official  announcements, coverage, police de-funding calls, overall coverage, etc… are just plain off the actual need for a solution to all this. This is something that KVP will attempt to put together, but as a separate thread, likely on linked-in… as its classic “LoserThink”… & very much tied to also how we approach investing, trading, business, life & general decision making…   
  • Not too much from the Dragon’s side today that comes to mind, NOK has been Godzilla of a trade & the “easy” part of the run has occurred – structurally still see it strengthening, yet with oil having had a massive run & NOK having clocked almost +25% from its lows & c. +10% from when we flagged it (that unlevered so that like +50% on capital, kudos to those that it both resonated with & those that mad the time to consider it)…
  • KVP feels that currently there are better asymmetrical trades out there… so would leave a trailing stop here, or at the very least empty the trading tranche of the long-term investment position… & look to add on any pullbacks. Near-term feels like we could also get some pullback in oil. Long-term Norway & NOK still a class of one, in world that is going down the debt rabbit hole.   
  • Overall though, skew is still for a structurally weaker USD & you know the usual suspect that the Dragon has been banging on about… Rio baby! With that said, surprised that we still saw USD weakness despite not getting the YCC overnight… DXY was -0.38% & USDJPY is breaking to key lvls now sub 107… this puppy was an amazing 109.65 just a few days ago… which was "a screamingly stupid lvl" for a mega yen bull like KVP…
  • There will be no Macro Dragon tomorrow, as tied up on a few VIP projects, our quarterly & currently just don’t have much to say. Be well.


On The Radar Today

  • UK: House Prices
  • EZ: Eurogroup meetings, French Jobs Data, Italian IP
  • US: PPI, Jobless Claims 1.6m e 1.9p, Natural gas storage-


Start-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision. Create Luck. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.



Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 07

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • The rise of populism: Far-right parties will influence the future

    The disheartening cycle of unresolved geopolitical conflicts, the rise of polarizing political parties, and the stagnation of productivity.

    Read article
  • Investing in China: Navigating Q1 amid economic challenges

    Understand China's political landscape in Q4 2023 and the impact on counter-cyclical initiatives, with a focus on the pivotal Q1 2024.

    Read article

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
- Full disclaimer (

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo or its affiliates.

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited
19th Floor
Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower
12 Queen’s Road Central
Hong Kong

Contact Saxo

Select region

Hong Kong S.A.R
Hong Kong S.A.R

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited (“Saxo”) is a company authorised and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Saxo holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Securities); Type 2 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Futures Contract); Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading); Type 4 Regulated Activity (Advising on Securities) and Type 9 Regulated Activity (Asset Management) licenses (CE No. AVD061). Registered address: 19th Floor, Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower, 12 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. Please click here to view the relevant risk disclosure statements.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

The information or the products and services referred to on this site may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and services offered on this website are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity residing in the United States and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.