Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
U.S. equity benchmarks pushed to new highs on Monday only to lose steam into 3 consecutive down days Tuesday through Thursday. Quantum computing re-entered as a hot topic following a breakthrough by HSBC to apply it to financial markets. The Nikkei 225 has been quietly ticking up and continued this week. Trump comments shifted to a more hawkish stance against Russia, which supported oil prices. More below on this week’s key stories.
Mining disaster
Copper futures shot up on Wednesday after an Indonesian mining disaster is expected to hamper global supply. Shares in miner Freeport-McMoRan slumped as the company declared force majeure at the Grasberg mine. The tragedy resulted in 2 deaths and 5 missing workers.
Copper: Grasberg disruption adds fuel to robust demand outlook
Precious metals on the rise
Gold once again reached new highs on Tuesday supported by rate cut expectations and record ETF buying. Silver and platinum also have the tailwind, both surging higher. Technical indicators are questioning the sustainability of the rally.
Precious metals surge to fresh highs as Fed cuts add fuel
More AI investment
Nvidia announced plans to invest up to $100bn into OpenAI. The deal is mutually beneficial as, among other things, Nvidia locks in orders and OpenAI gets priority access. Alibaba also revealed plans to ramp up AI spending as tech companies pledge more and more into the global AI race.
Nvidia's USD 100b OpenAI investment
Stronger dollar
The US Dollar is well off the lows of last week after a string of hot US data - Stronger than expected GDP, reduction in jobless claims, and PCE in line with expectations. The move will be welcome news for offshore investors in US assets who have seen returns eaten up this year by a weaker dollar.
USDJPY set to test markets if it squeezes any higher
Next week the big-ticket data releases in Europe are UK GDP on Tuesday and Eurozone unemployment on Thursday. While in the US it is a labour data dump with Job Openings on Tuesday, Jobless claims on Thursday, and NFP on Friday. And for Asia it is RBA rate decision on Tuesday, HK retail sales on Thursday, and Japan unemployment on Friday. The U.S. federal government is set to run out of funding on Wednesday night unless lawmakers can extend the budget. Wednesday is also the start of China’s Golden Week.