Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 29 November 2023 Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 29 November 2023 Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 29 November 2023

Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 29 November 2023

Macro 3 minutes to read
Saxo Strategy Team

Summary:  Growing expectations that the Federal Reserve is done with policy tightening and may start cutting rates next year helped send bond yields and the dollar lower on Tuesday, thereby supporting risk sentiment across markets. Gold trades at a six-month high with Fed’s Beige book as well as US GDP the focus today ahead of Fed chair Powell’s speech on Friday where the market will be looking for confirmation of a changed tone towards easing.

The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.

Equities: Hang Seng futures continued today to slide lower down 1.9% underscoring that sentiment remains weak and the Chinese government must do more to stop the negative feedback loop related to its weak real estate sector. Equity futures in Europe and the US are flat this morning. Financials and real estate stocks could be in focus in today’s European session as Spain kicks off today the first of many inflation readings this week. CrowdStrike (the world’s fifth largest cyber security company) reported earnings after the US market close with Q3 results beating estimates and Q4 EPS guidance above estimates.

FX: Dovish Waller put further pressure on the dollar, offsetting any buying seen due to the month-end demand, and RBNZ’s hawkish hold this morning in Asia further aggravated dollar’s downside. So far, this week is turning out to be the worst week for the dollar since the start of the year, and a similar dovish shift from Powell on Friday could make it worse. EURUSD broke above the key 1.0960 level to test 1.10, NZD rallied sharply to 0.62 handle from 0.6150 as the central bank raised its OCR path and signalled no rate cuts until mid-2025. JPY also caught up to gains with Treasury yields slumping with USDJPY slid to test 147. AUDUSD hit fresh 3-month highs of 0.6676 but reversed later as Aussie CPI came in below expectations.

Commodities: Gold extended its Santa rally on dovish Waller comments, much as we have highlighted in articles, podcasts and a webinar over the last week. XAUUSD has come up on top as one of our highest traded FX products this week, but worth noting that high cost of carry and still high real yields could make the rally prone to corrections. Crude oil also surged higher amid a weaker dollar, breaches in Israel/Hamas truce and reports on lack of OPEC progress as the decision nears. Copper hits 10-week high as mine closure in Panama and strike action in Peru points to supply risks. EU gas prices continue lower despite the current cold spell amid ample supply, weak demand and high input from renewables.

Fixed income: the US yield curve bull-steepened following Waller’s remarks that if inflation continues to fall over several months, the Federal Reserve can gradually cut interest rates. However, that was not enough to strengthen demand during the 7-year auction, which tailed by 2.1bps. It received the lowest bid-to-cover since March, and primary dealers were awarded 20.3% of the auction, the most in a year. However, spillover in the secondary market was limited to the longer part of the yield curve, resulting in a steeper curve by the end of the day with the spread between two and ten-year US Treasury yields higher by 10bps. Ten-year yields broke below strong support at 4.36% and will find support next at 4%. Investors’ focus shifts to tomorrow’s PCE data, which, if it comes lower than expected could drive yields further down and the yield curve could bull-steepen further.

Volatility: The VIX ended yesterday’s session exactly at the previous day’s ending, at $12.69 (0.00 | 0.00%). However the trading day did see some volatility right before and during when FED speaker Barr held his speech, causing a spike to 14.13 intraday. VIX futures stayed mostly flat during the overnight session, at $13.770 (-0.015 | -0.10%), S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures are at 4568.75 (+5.75 | +0.13%) and 16067.75 (+19.75 | +0.12%) respectively.

Technical analysis highlights: S&P 500 likely to push to 4,607, expect correction. Nasdaq 100 short term correction likely, support at 15,744. DAX resist at 16,060. EURUSD above resistance at 1.0965, potential to 1.11. USDJPY if closing below support at 147.32 downside potential to 145. GBPUSD close to resistance at 1.2745. Gold uptrend potential to 2,070.  Silver rejection at 25.25. WTI Crude oil range bound 72.65-79.77, Brent 77.24-83.97. Copper above at strong resistance at 382. 10-year T-yields below support at 4.36, next 4.07

Macro: Fed Governor Waller, a hawk and voter, opened to the idea of rate cuts saying that if inflation continues to cool for several more months… then we can start lowering the policy rate”. This aided a dovish repricing of the Fed curve with the May rate now prices with over 90% probability. He said that he is "increasingly confident" policy is well positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to 2%. Fed’s Goolsbee also said that he has some concerns about keeping rates too high for too long. US economic confidence rose in November following three consecutive months of decline. Headline rose to 102.0 from the revised lower 99.1 for October. Present Situation Index was slightly lower at 138.2 from 138.6, but Expectations lifted to 77.8 from 72.7.

In the news: Bill Ackman Bets Fed Will Cut Interest Rates as Soon as First Quarter (Bloomberg), US Thanksgiving weekend sales hit record on big discounts, online boost (Reuters), Panama to shut major copper mine after court ruling (FT), Charlie Munger, investing genius and Warren Buffett’s right-hand man, dies at age 99 (CNBC), CrowdStrike posts better-than-expected earnings, but its stock slips (DJ).

Macro events (all times are GMT): German CPI (Nov) exp –0.1% & 3.5% vs 0% & 3.8% prior (1200), US 3Q GDP exp 5% vs 4.9% prior (1230), US 3Q Core PCE exp 2.4% vs 2.4% prior (1230), EIA’s weekly Crude and Fuel Stock Report (1430), Fed Beige Book (1800), BoE's Bailey speaks (1405), Fed’s Mester speaks (1745)

Earnings events: Today’s key earnings releases are Dollar Tree, Snowflake, Synopsys, Salesforce, Pure Storage, and Okta. For the markets the key event is Salesforce reporting FY24 Q3 (ending 31 October) tonight after the US market close with analysts expecting revenue growth of 11% y/y and EBITDA of $3.6bn up from $1.6bn a year ago as the application software maker continues to focus on profitability.

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar


The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
- Full disclaimer (

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo or its affiliates.

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited
19th Floor
Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower
12 Queen’s Road Central
Hong Kong

Contact Saxo

Select region

Hong Kong S.A.R
Hong Kong S.A.R

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited (“Saxo”) is a company authorised and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Saxo holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Securities); Type 2 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Futures Contract); Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading); Type 4 Regulated Activity (Advising on Securities) and Type 9 Regulated Activity (Asset Management) licenses (CE No. AVD061). Registered address: 19th Floor, Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower, 12 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. Please click here to view the relevant risk disclosure statements.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

The information or the products and services referred to on this site may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and services offered on this website are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity residing in the United States and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.