Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 22 January 2024 Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 22 January 2024 Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 22 January 2024

Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 22 January 2024

Macro 3 minutes to read
Saxo Strategy Team

Summary:  US and EU equity futures trade higher, extending gains that saw the S&P 500 index reach a record high on Friday. Meanwhile stocks in Asia trade mixed with the Nikkei recording another strong gain ahead of Tuesday’s Bank of Japan meeting while Chinese and Hong Kong stocks continue lower on pessimism over the economic outlook. On Friday, the semiconductors led the from the front after an upbeat message from Taiwan’s TSMC fuelled the bullish sentiment with a softer dollar also supporting the risk on sentiment. Focus this week on central bank meetings in Europe and Canada, EU PMI’s as well as US earnings and Friday’s PCE inflation, the Fed’s favoured inflation indicator.


The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.

Equities: Another weak session in Chinese equities with Hang Seng futures down 1.4% while both US and European equity futures are up in early trading hours with STOXX 50 futures up 0.9% and S&P 500 futures up 0.3%. It is a big week ahead for equities with many important earnings releases with the three most important earnings releases being GE (Tue), Tesla (Wed), and ASML (Wed). In single stock names it is worth tracking French payment company Worldline as the French bank Credit Agricole is taking a

FX: The dollar pushed lower on Friday as risk sentiment rose after the University of Michigan survey showed a mix of high consumer confidence and lower inflation expectations. The DXY index will be watching support at 103 ahead of week that could bring focus back on soft landing with US GDP likely to remain strong while core PCE is expected to soften. The EURUSD moved above 1.09 after turning higher from 200DMA last week, but the upside looks fleeting even as ECB officials continue to push back on rate cut expectations. USDJPY still around 148 with eyes turning to BOJ meeting on Tuesday. CAD and NOK outperformed, with AUDUSD still attempting a break above 0.66.

Commodities: Crude oil trades softer with no Mideast escalation seen over the weekend and as Libya restart production from a major field. Overall, the range bound trading behavior looks set to continue for now as traders alternate their focus between the risk of a disruption and soft demand with an IEA forecast pointing to a well-supplied market in 2024. US natural gas prices continue their week-long slump as traders looked forward to the end of winter while storage remained abundant. Gold remains stuck with traders adjusting positions to reflect a potential delay in the timing of the first US rate cut. An ongoing slump in grains has driven the hedge funds short to a 2019 high and close to a record, potentially raising the risk of a short covering rally.

Fixed income: The Treasury yield curve twisted on Friday, with the 2-year yield rising 3bps while the 10-year yield declined 2bps from the previous day amid the strongest University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading since July 2021 partly due to falling short-term and long-term inflation expectations. Over the week, the 2-year yields went up by24bps while the 10-year yield rose by 18bps amid strong data and hawkish Fed speak, particularly Governor Waller who stressed that rate cuts would be gradual and executed “methodically and carefully” and played down the risk of potential stress in the repo markets. Fed officials are in blackout this week ahead of the January 30-31 FOMC meeting. On economic data, the focus will be on the GDP first estimate on Thursday and the PCE deflator on Friday.

Macro: US preliminary Uni of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for January saw the headline jump to a July 2021 high at 78.8, well above the expected 70.0, partly due to falling short-term and long-term inflation expectations. Both current conditions and forward-looking expectations rose to 83.3 (prev. 73.3) and 75.9 (prev. 67.4), respectively. On the inflation footing, 1yr ahead expectations fell to 2.9% from 3.1%, the lowest since December 2020, while the longer-term 5-10yr gauge dipped to 2.8% from 2.9%. Fed speakers continued to push forward rate cut expectations. Mary Daly (voter) said it is premature to think rate cuts are around the corner and it is far too early to declare victory. Goolsbee (non-voter) said he doesn't like "tying his hands" when asked about when to expect rate cuts, but he did clarify we still have "weeks" of data. Fed members now enter the quiet period ahead of the January 31 meeting.

Volatility: Volatility continued to soften as the VIX closed at $13.30 (-0.83 | -5.87%) on Friday, paralleled by a decline in the VVIX to 81.95 (-4.39 | -5.08%). The tech sector's strength pushed the markets to new highs, setting a robust tone. This week's expected moves for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are slightly elevated from last week, at +/-1.03% (+/-49.94) and +/-1.54% (+/-267.04), indicating a market bracing for a dynamic week with key economic data on GDP and PCE due for release, which could shape perceptions on inflation and a potential 'soft landing' for the economy. The earnings calendar is packed, with reports from Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, Netflix, Tesla and other major firms likely to stir market activity. Overnight, VIX futures fell to 14.400 (-0.205 | -1.40%), and both S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures rose, +10.50 (+0.22%) and +104.00 (+0.59%) respectively, suggesting a continuation of the positive momentum into the new week.

In the news: China orders indebted local governments to halt some infrastructure projects - sources (Reuters), China defies sanctions to make Russia its biggest oil supplier in 2023 (Reuters), US FDA finds new manufacturing lapses at Eli Lilly plant (Reuters), Chinese yuan gives US dollar a run for its money as African trade embraces other currencies (SCMP), Zuckerberg's Meta Is Spending Billions to Buy 350,000 Nvidia H100 GPUs (PCMag), Ron DeSantis drops out of 2024 presidential race, endorses Donald Trump (CNBC), Israel’s Netanyahu Rejects Hamas’s Terms for Hostage Release (Bloomberg)

Macro events (all times are GMT): no important releases today

Earnings events: Busy week ahead with key earnings releases listed below:

  • Monday: Ericsson
  • Tuesday: GE, J&J, P&G, RTX, Lockheed Martin, 3M, Netflix, Intuitive Surgical
  • Wednesday: SAP, ASML, Freeport-McMoRan, Abbott Laboratories, Tesla, CSX
  • Thursday: SEB, Sandvik, Valero Energy, Atlas Copco, STMicroelectronics, NextEra Energy, Humana, Intel, LVMH, Visa
  • Friday: Volvo, Kone, Christian Dior, Colgate Palmolive.

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q2

2024: The wasted year

01 / 07

  • Macro: It’s all about elections and keeping status quo

    Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.

    Read article
  • FX: The rate cut race shifts into high gear

    As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.

    Read article
  • FX: High yielding currencies will start losing their appeal

    Uncover the shifting focus in 2024's FX markets towards growth resilience and relativity, away from bond yields and inflation stories.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Year of the metals

    Embrace the metal revolution on the commodity market in the coming year, with a focus on gold, silver, platinum, copper, and aluminum.

    Read article
  • Macro: What happened to the future?

    The gloominess of geopolitical conflicts and the repetitive nature of political agendas. What else does 2024 hold in store for us?

    Read article
  • The rise of populism: Far-right parties will influence the future

    The disheartening cycle of unresolved geopolitical conflicts, the rise of polarizing political parties, and the stagnation of productivity.

    Read article
  • Investing in China: Navigating Q1 amid economic challenges

    Understand China's political landscape in Q4 2023 and the impact on counter-cyclical initiatives, with a focus on the pivotal Q1 2024.

    Read article
Disclaimer

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-hk/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo or its affiliates.

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited
19th Floor
Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower
12 Queen’s Road Central
Hong Kong

Contact Saxo

Select region

Hong Kong S.A.R
Hong Kong S.A.R

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited (“Saxo”) is a company authorised and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Saxo holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Securities); Type 2 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Futures Contract); Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading); Type 4 Regulated Activity (Advising on Securities) and Type 9 Regulated Activity (Asset Management) licenses (CE No. AVD061). Registered address: 19th Floor, Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower, 12 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. Please click here to view the relevant risk disclosure statements.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-hk/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this site may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and services offered on this website are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity residing in the United States and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.