Global Market Quick Take: Asia – June 5, 2024 Global Market Quick Take: Asia – June 5, 2024 Global Market Quick Take: Asia – June 5, 2024

Global Market Quick Take: Asia – June 5, 2024

Macro 6 minutes to read
APAC Research

Key points:

  • Equities: US stocks slightly up
  • FX: Haven currencies JPY and CHF outperform
  • Commodities: Commodities prices declined
  • Fixed income: US 10 year yield falls for fourth day
  • Economic data: US ISM services, Bank of Canada decision, Australia Q1 GDP

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.

QT 5 Jun

Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Equities: Amidst a backdrop of economic uncertainty, U.S. stocks traded with some intraday volatility, initially selling off due to a drop in job openings to three-year lows, signaling deceleration in the labor sector. The market managed to pare these losses as the day progressed, rallying sharply in the late afternoon, mirroring the prior session’s pattern. Surprisingly, equity markets did not react much to a significant two-day decline in Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield falling by approximately 20 basis points to 4.3%. Market expectation for an interest rate cut in September have risen to about 65%, up from less than 50% last week, following a report indicating a weakening manufacturing sector. For the second consecutive day, oil firms led the declines in the S&P, with oil prices falling to their lowest point in four months to $73.25  and negatively affecting the stock values of companies like Exxon, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips. Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 Index which represents smaller companies fell over 1%.

FX: The US dollar traded mixed on Tuesday, gaining some strength initially but reversing back lower after the soft JOLTS data. Lower yields saw haven currencies outperform. USDJPY slid below 155 with reports of BOJ considering tapering its bond buying at the June meeting next week. Pair however rose back above 155 this morning even as Japan’s labor cash earnings came in higher than expected at 2.1% YoY suggesting wage pressures may be picking up. USDCHF down to 0.89 and EURCHF has slid below 0.97 even as Swiss core CPI came in unchanged as against expectations of a slight pickup suggesting SNB’s June 20 meeting options remain open. AUDUSD around 0.6650 very much in focus with Q1 GDP out today expected to show a stark softness. EURUSD back below 1.09 and GBP below 1.28, but not too far from these key levels.

Commodities: Oil prices continued to decline as concerns about increased supply and weak U.S. economic data unsettled traders. Silver prices fell below $30 per ounce from an 11-year high of $32 due to evaluations of interest rate policies by major central banks and the impact of US tariffs on Chinese imports of solar cells. Strong domestic demand in China and anticipated interest rate cuts by major central banks limited the decline. Copper futures fell due to low demand, particularly from China, and ample supply. Prices remained 15% higher year-to-date, driven by expectations of potential shortages and the metal's role in electrification and infrastructure projects. Natural gas prices fell after an outage at a Norwegian offshore platform disrupted gas exports to the UK. The outage, which has been extended by two days, caused a 4% surge in gas prices in Europe and a 5% rise in the UK.

Fixed income: Bond market sentiment is shifting toward a dovish stance, with investors increasingly betting on the Federal Reserve to slash interest rates sooner, as evidenced by a robust Treasury rally. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has dropped sharply, falling over 30 basis points in just a few sessions, reaching depths not plumbed since mid-May, amid signs that inflation may be stabilizing and economic indicators like manufacturing and consumer spending are weakening. The pullback in yields deepened following a surprising decline in U.S. job vacancies, with the 10-year yield sinking as low as 4.31% today. This downward trend in yields has led to a significant technical milestone, with the 10-year closing beneath its 200-day moving average for the first time in several weeks.

In Japan, the 10-year bond yield edged down by 2 basis points, and JGB futures climbed 21 ticks to 143.37, buoyed by robust demand at the latest 10-year debt auction—a marked improvement from the prior offering. Meanwhile, in Australia, the yield on 10-year government bonds decreased by 6 basis points, paralleled by a 7 basis point drop in the yield of New Zealand's equivalent maturity bonds.

Macro:

  • US jobs data also showed further signs of softening labor market. Headline job openings slowed to 8.059 million in April (vs. an expected 8.35mln), coming in below expectations of 8.350 million and the lowest level since February 2021. March job openings was also revised lower to 8.355 million from 8.488 million earlier. The quits rate was unchanged at 2.2% after revisions to the prior data. 3M job openings change is now down to -689k in April, while the job openings/unemployed person have cooled to 1.24 from a peak of 2+ in March 2022. More labor data is in focus this week, with ADP out today, claims on Thursday and NFP on Friday. ISM services PMI will also be key today after a sharp market reaction to the manufacturing PMI on Monday.
  • BOC preview: The Bank of Canada is expected to cut rates by 25bps at its June 5th meeting, taking its key rate to 4.75%. Markets have priced in 80% probability of a rate cut today, with inflation back in target range of 1-3% and growth risks magnifying. The big test will be whether the BOC is ready to diverge from the Fed, and comments from Gov Macklem will be on watch.

Macro events: BoC Announcement, Australia Real GDP (Q1), China Final Caixin Services & Composite PMI (May), EZ/UK/US Final Services & Composite PMIs (May), US ADP National Employment (May), ISM Services PMI (May)

Earnings: Dollar Tree, Ollie’s, UNFI, Hibbett, Land’s End, Campbell’s, Thor, Douyu.com, Global Blue, REV, Lululemon, Chargepoint, Victoria’s Secret, Five Below, Greif, SemTech, Sprinklr, Couchbase, Smartsheet, ReNew

News:

  • Stock Market Today: Dow closes higher as slump in job openings fuel rate-cut hopes (Investing)
  • US oil futures slip after surprise API build (Investing)
  • Japan real wages down 25th straight month in April, government says (Investing)
  • Exclusive-Chinese AI chip firms downgrading designs to secure TSMC production, sources say (Yahoo)
  •  Bonds Rally as Traders Reload Fed Bets After Data: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg)
  • GameStop Stock Soared. Roaring Kitty Showed His Stake (Barron’s)
  • India stocks tumble 5% to lead Asia markets lower (CNBC)

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.


Disclaimer

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-hk/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo or its affiliates.

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited
19th Floor
Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower
12 Queen’s Road Central
Hong Kong

Contact Saxo

Select region

Hong Kong S.A.R
Hong Kong S.A.R

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited (“Saxo”) is a company authorised and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Saxo holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Securities); Type 2 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Futures Contract); Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading); Type 4 Regulated Activity (Advising on Securities) and Type 9 Regulated Activity (Asset Management) licenses (CE No. AVD061). Registered address: 19th Floor, Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower, 12 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. Please click here to view the relevant risk disclosure statements.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-hk/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this site may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and services offered on this website are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity residing in the United States and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.