Global Market Quick Take: Asia – March 26, 2024

Global Market Quick Take: Asia – March 26, 2024

Macro 6 minutes to read
Redmond Wong

Chief China Strategist

Summary:  The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both retreated by 0.3%, while the Nikkei 225 declined 1.2% from its record high to close at 40,414. USDJPY remained above 151, prompting concerns voiced by Masto Kanda, Japan's top currency official, regarding speculative movements in FX markets. Market reactions were subdued, with USDJPY trading around 151.40 in Tokyo. Additionally, USDCNH reversed its gains from last Friday, dropping to approximately 7.2530 after significant USDCNY sales by the People’s Bank of China and fixing the USDCNY at 7.0996. WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil climbed 1.6% to $81.95 and $86.75 respectively as Ukrainian drones hit another Russian oil refinery.


The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events. 

Equities: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both pulled back 0.3%, retreating for the second day in a row. Bucking the decline, Super Micro Computer and Micron Technology surged 7.2% and 6.3% respectively. Take-Two Interactive was the worst-performing stock among the S&P 500, falling 4.2% after a reported delay in the latest instalment of a blockbuster game.

Likewise, the Nikkei 225 pulled back from its record high, down 1.2% to close at 40,414. In China and Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index and CSI300 fluctuated between small gains and losses, finishing the session 0.2% and 0.5% lower despite China’s central bank fixed the renminbi basket on the strong side, and better-than-expected earnings from China Hongqiao, seeing its share price surge 13.4%. BYD, China Telecom, and Anta Sports are reporting results today.

FX: As USDJPY hovered above 151, Masto Kanda, Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs, who is Japan’s top currency official, warned about “clearly seeing speculative movements in FX markets” on Monday. While Kanda’s remarks have increased the probability of the Minister of Finance’s intervention to draw a line to stop the weakening of the Yen, market reactions were muted, with USDJPY trading at around 151,40 in Tokyo Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, USDCNH reversed nearly all its gain from last Friday, plunging to finish Monday at around 7.2530 after the People’s Bank of China fixed the USDCNY rate at 7.0996 and sold USDCNY heavily in the onshore market.

Commodities:  WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil front month futures both climbed 1.6% to $81.95 and $86.75 respectively as Ukrainian drones hit another Russian oil refinery, adding to the list of casualties of Russian refining infrastructure, estimated to amount to 7% of Russian capacity that has been knocked out by drone attacks. A decline in oil drilling rig count in the US also added to traders’ concerns about supply.

Fixed income: Treasuries pulled back from their post-FOMC rallies, with yields climbing across the yield curve. The $66 billion 2-year Treasury note auction met with subdue demand. The benchmark 10-year yield finished the session 5bps higher at 4.25%.

Macro:

  • The US released a mixed bag of data, with new home sales sliding to 662k, below 677k expected in February while the January data was modestly revised up to 664k from previously reported 661k. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index came in at 0.05, stronger than the -0.34 expected and last month’s -0.54 (revised down from -0.3) but the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity  Index weakened to -14.4 from -11.3, below the -10.0 expected.

Macro events: US Durable Goods Orders (Feb), US Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Mar), Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (Apr), Singapore Industrial Production (Feb)

Earnings: BYD, China Telecom, Nongfu Spring, CITIC Securities, PICC Property & Casualty, ANTA Sports, People’s Insurance, SF Holding

In the news:

  • Japan Inc. to return record $165bn to shareholders as profits rise (Nikkei Asia)
  • Trump Can Post Smaller $175 Million Bond in Civil Fraud Case (WSJ)
  • Biggest Challenge Facing New Boeing CEO Is Winning Over Airlines (Bloomberg)
  • Japan's corporate service inflation steady in February (Reuters)
  • New chairman is named for US House select committee on China (SCMP)
  • CATL to Keep Expanding in the Face of Slower EV Growth, Chairman Says (Bloomberg)
  • Mumbai becomes Asia's billionaire capital, topped by Mukesh Ambani (Nikkei Asia)

 

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo...
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami...
  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p...
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Quarterly Outlook

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ...
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
Disclaimer

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-hk/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo or its affiliates.

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited
19th Floor
Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower
12 Queen’s Road Central
Hong Kong

Contact Saxo

Select region

Hong Kong S.A.R
Hong Kong S.A.R

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited (“Saxo”) is a company authorised and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Saxo holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Securities); Type 2 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Futures Contract); Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading); Type 4 Regulated Activity (Advising on Securities) and Type 9 Regulated Activity (Asset Management) licenses (CE No. AVD061). Registered address: 19th Floor, Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower, 12 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. Please click here to view the relevant risk disclosure statements.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-hk/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this site may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and services offered on this website are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity residing in the United States and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.